Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
464 FXUS63 KFGF 250413 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Clear skies prevail across the area this evening with temperatures in the lower 50s. Minimal adjustments needed this update as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Mostly clear skies prevail this evening temperatures in the lower 70s. The forecast remains on track this evening with minimal changes needed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Upper trough that brought last night`s rain continues to push east across MN, splitting into a closed low over IA and a more northern branch over the arrowhead. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to amplify over the Rockies, and will push into the Plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Between the ridge and the southward sinking IA low the pattern becomes rather blocky and doesn`t change much through the rest of the work week. Temperatures warming back to up well above late September averages will be the primary outcome, with highs again topping 80 degrees in several locations by Wednesday. Upper level riding will continue into Thursday. Breezy conditions are anticipated as the pressure gradient tightens and a 30 to 40 knot 850 mb jet propagates through the FA. With relative humidity values between 30 and 40 percent, fire weather is worth monitoring, but not a concern as of right now. Beyond Thursday, ridging slowly breaks down as the rex block pattern over the central and eastern US wanes. An approaching trough late Sunday into Monday will finally drop temperatures back to more seasonal values, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A few showers associated with the trough passage are forecasted Monday into Tuesday. POPs currently are under 20 percent, which given the uncertainty of the placement and intensity of the axis of forcing, is not surprising. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period at all sites. Clear skies are expected to persist through the overnight period with a low chance for patchy fog early Wednesday morning. Look for light and variable winds through mid morning with winds increasing slightly by midday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...Rafferty/JR AVIATION...Lynch