Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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703 FXUS63 KFGF 270423 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds to 45 mph in portions of eastern North Dakota into the Red River Valley may bring minor wind-related impacts this afternoon. - Near critical fire weather conditions continue through the afternoon today. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The front is getting closer to the Red River Valley, with south winds at 5 to 10 mph ahead of it and northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph behind it. There are a few wisps of cirrus over the far northern Valley, but it remains clear elsewhere. It remains a very quiet night. UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 South winds remain pretty gusty yet within the Red River Valley, but they are starting to decrease across the Devils Lake region. Expect a pretty rapid drop in wind speeds over the next hour or two, as sunset approaches. The wind switch associated with the next cold front currently stretches from near Rolla down through just east of Bismarck. This boundary will slowly track eastward tonight, although no precipitation or even cloud cover is associated with it. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...Synopsis... Large and anomalously strong upper ridging over the Great Plains into Upper Midwest can be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon. A shortwave trough pushing east into the Northern Plains out of the northern Rockies can also be seen. This incoming shortwave trough is helping increase surface pressure gradient across the Dakotas as lee troughing impinges upon surface high pressure within the Upper Midwest. A warm and very dry air mass is also overspread across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This is driving near critical fire weather conditions within our area, along with potential minor impacts from high winds, this afternoon. Upper ridging is only shunted some with the incoming shortwave trough moving through our region tonight/tomorrow. Thus, summer-like warmth will continue into this weekend. Another period of gusty winds Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front amid similarly dry and warm air mass may allow for another period of fire weather conditions. Sunday`s cold front looks to have a notable air mass change behind it, bringing temperatures closer to average to perhaps slightly below average. Gusty winds behind the cold front into Monday can also be anticipated. Ensemble guidance still indicates a chance for light rain with this as well. ...Gusty Winds and Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon... Winds continue to gust up to the mid 40s mph, with sustained winds around 30 mph in the northern Red River Valley into eastern North Dakota mainly north of Hwy 200. For this reason, the Wind Advisory was extended into portions of eastern North Dakota. Gusty winds may bring minor impacts in these areas. These winds along with RH values are already 25-30%. Thus, near critical fire weather conditions are being realized, with localized critical fire weather conditions being observed intermittently. Winds will being to decrease around sunset near 7 PM. This is also when RH values begin to increase as temperatures cool for the evening. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 No impacts are expected at any of the TAF sites. The only thing worth mentioning is that wind speeds will stay much lower over the next 24 hours (generally less than 10 knots), although there will be some direction changes. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...CJ AVIATION...Godon