Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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362 FXUS63 KFGF 251532 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1032 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Mostly clear skies dominate the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest underneath large upper ridging over the western two thirds of the CONUS. Upper ridging, surface high pressure, and relatively dry air mass will continue mostly cloudy skies and lighter winds, while allowing temperatures to reach well above average into the 80s. UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Forecast remains on track this morning, with temperatures hovering in the low to mid 40s for northwestern MN and 50s in eastern ND. Patchy fog remains possible in lakes country through mid morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Dakotas and Minnesota this week. The amplification of the ridge keeps the shortwaves north of the border, but brings the chance for breezy conditions as LLJ`s have the potential to develop ahead of those shortwaves. Precipitation also remains north of the International Border during this time keeping conditions dry, with low relative humidity values. Change of flow is anticipated as we get into the end of the weekend and early next week, with precipitation chances increasing and temperatures cooling. Current satellite has a few clouds lingering across the region, with light and variable winds. A observations in lakes county have patchy ground fog developing as dew point depression reach zero, skies are clear, and the winds are light and variable. This continues through the mid morning. Skies remain mostly sunny today, with temperatures reaching 10-15 degrees above normal as highs hit the upper 70s to mid 80s. RH values drop to the mid 30s in the southern Red River Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours, but winds remain below 15mph limiting any fire weather concerns. A LLJ starts to develop Thursday afternoon, with 925mb winds in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota reaching 35-40kts. Lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km through the 925mb level would allow for breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Probabilities of seeing wind gusts 35kts or higher are 60% for eastern North Dakota and 30-40% for the Red River Valley. Probabilities of seeing advisory level winds are 20% for the Devils Lake Basin. RH values during this time are in the low to mid 30s for southeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, with the mid 30s in the Devils Lake Basin through northeastern North Dakota. Fire weather is worth monitoring, but not a concern as of right now. Continued warm conditions are expected end of the work week and into the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry conditions are expected during this time, with RH values ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Next chance for precipitation comes early next week as the ridge breaks down. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Winds remain light and variable this morning, but should turn toward the west at 5-10kts. This evening winds shift toward the south around 21-00z. BJI turns light and variable 00z through the end of the TAF period. Winds start to increase near the end of the TAF period out of the south. Otherwise, skies remain SKC to FEW through the period, with VFR conditions. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/Spender DISCUSSION...Spender AVIATION...Spender