Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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706 FXUS65 KFGZ 261608 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 908 AM MST Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue to be the main story with high pressure dominating the Southwest. && .UPDATE...The tranquil, very warm, and dry conditions remain in place over northern Arizona with light breezes and mostly clear skies expected for this afternoon. Scattered, fair weather cumulus clouds could develop along the high terrain this afternoon, as everywhere else should be mostly clear. Widespread high temperatures, 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year, are forecast for this afternoon, however, relief overnight is anticipated to continue. Light southerly winds, 5-15 mph, will take place for this afternoon as well, becoming calm by nightfall. The current forecast remains on track with no changes needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /409 AM MST/...A weak shortwave looks to pass along the U.S./Canada border today, but shouldn`t bring any impacts to Arizona due to the impressive ridge that has settle across the Southwest. This area of high pressure will wobble around day-to-day, but ultimately our story won`t alter much. Expect daytime highs to ring in 8-16 degrees above normal for this time of year. Outside of seasonably warm temperatures, expect mostly light winds and dry conditions to remain in place. Smoke/haze will also stick around the Flagstaff area from nearby fires. If you wake up to smokey conditions, be patient as the inversion breaks by the early afternoon allowing smoke to rise further aloft. There may be slight relief by the middle of next week. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge looks to weaken, but still remain in place over Arizona. As a result, daytime highs should inch back closer to average temperatures for this time of year. Still might not completely feel like fall, but that`s the likely potential relief in sight at the moment. Beyond our extended forecast...The ECMWF model does show a large trough sweeping in from off the Pacific Northwest Coast by the first weekend in October. Take this with a grain of salt though...this is the only model currently hinting at this solution. Normally, something this far out wouldn`t be worth mentioning due to the large uncertainty, but the forecast is pretty quiet so why not take a look beyond our 7-days. && .AVIATION...Thursday 26/12Z through Friday 27/12Z...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with brief reduced visibilities from HZ/FU near the KFLG and KSEZ terminals. Winds will be 5-15 kts varying in direction. OUTLOOK...Friday 27/12Z through Sunday 29/12Z...VFR conditions will persist through the outlook period, with brief reduced visibilities from HZ/FU near the KFLG and KSEZ terminals. Winds will be 5-15 kts varying in direction. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average will continue each afternoon. Winds will vary in direction each day generally 5 to 15 mph. Expect minimum RH values to be 25% or less. Saturday through Monday...Look for afternoon temperatures to remain well above average through the weekend and into next week. Winds will generally be out of the south along and south of the Mogollon Rim Saturday and Sunday at 10 to 20 mph. Areas north of the Rim will see light and variable winds. Winds varying in direction 5 to 15 mph return on Monday. Minimum RH values will remain between 10 to 20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Konieczny AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff