Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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757 FXUS63 KFSD 250328 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1028 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue throughout the period, with highs generally in the 70s to 80s and lows in the 50s. - Breezy southerly winds and lowering relative humidity levels could result in elevated fire danger west of the James River Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Quiet conditions continue to prevail as a cu field blossoms across the region, with latest observations showing northwesterly winds and temperatures in the 70s. While gusts up to 25 MPH remain possible through the afternoon, should see gusts quickly diminish as we approach sunset, giving way to light and variable winds overnight. With the aid of radiational cooling, have lows falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper level ridging builds across the region Wednesday, keeping conditions dry through mid-week. This will also allow temperatures to rise back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Though winds look to remain light Wednesday, should see gusts increase Thursday, especially in areas west of I-29. Currently have gusts between 20 to 30 MPH, with some areas across south-central South Dakota peaking into the lower 30s. Given the lack of appreciable moisture and lowering relative humidity levels, can`t rule out the possibility of seeing elevated fire danger west of the James River. Thus, want to remind folks to be careful with any activity that may cause a spark as wildfires can spread quickly in these conditions. Otherwise, look for lows in the 50s to prevail through mid-week. Tropical Storm Helene moves further inland across the Gulf States Friday, causing the upper level flow to become quasi zonal across our area heading into the weekend. This system will then slowly meander northward across the Ohio Valley as a transitions to a tropical depression. If the track of the upper level low holds, should see dry conditions continue across our area. In regard to temperatures, expect afternoon highs in the lower 80s to gradually dip into the mid to upper 70s by Monday. Lows in the 50s will still remain common during this time. Medium range guidance still varies on the evolution of another shortwave trough early next week. Cluster analysis also shows similar variance with the same wave. However, the most favored cluster shows the wave amplifying east of the forecast area. This is further supported by the ensembles which again keep low probabilities of a 10-30% chance for exceeding a hundredth of an inch for next Monday and Tuesday. All this to say that mostly dry conditions are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR expected throughout the period, though some patchy shallow fog cannot be ruled out. Winds will remain calm and variable into Wednesday, with a couple hours where wind direction doesn`t change much by the late morning and early afternoon hours. However, winds will become variable again into the evening hours as they further turn to become out of the south-southeast early overnight into Thursday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...APT