Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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663 FXUS64 KFWD 222230 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 530 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The long-awaited cold front has finally inched its way into the northwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon. A broken line of showers and storms was oriented along it, extending roughly from northwestern Montague County to far western Stephens County. The showers and storms will lose instability tonight but there should be enough forcing from the approaching shortwave trough to keep at least showers and isolated storms through the night into Monday morning. Once the shortwave passes on Monday afternoon, it will bring an end to most of the showers/storms and push the front well into Central Texas. We will only make some minor adjustments to the hourly grids based on the current position of the cold front. Otherwise, the current forecast, as detailed below, is on track. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ The first day of astronomical fall will feel more like late August with widespread highs in the low to mid-90s expected this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of a slow-moving cold front currently situated from Central Oklahoma to Northwest Texas. Current analysis of the speed of this frontal boundary and the latest suite of high-resolution guidance places the front in our far west and northwest counties by ~6PM this evening. With the greatest synoptic-scale support displaced to the north of our forecast area, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to remain more scattered south of the Red River as the front shifts into North Texas. Isentropic ascent atop the frontal layer and a modest vorticity maxima shifting overhead tonight into early Monday will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Monday morning. Rainfall totals will remain quite light across most of the region with a 40-50% chance for 1+" totals along/west of Highway 281 with the initial activity that enters our area later this evening. Severe weather is not expected, however isolated 30-40 mph wind gusts across our far west will be possible. The front will push through the entirety of our forecast area into Central and Southeast Texas by midday Monday with rain chances tapering off as the primary mid- and upper-level support shifts to the northeast. Cloud cover and post-frontal northwesterly winds will finally break the streak of abnormally warm weather we have been experiencing the past several days. Expect high temperatures to top in the mid-70s to lower 80s across much of North Texas Monday afternoon with upper 80s to lower 90s across our far southern zones. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ Update: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus, the weather discussion appended below is still valid. There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper-level trough/low that will struggle to progress east of the Plains during the midweek period, becoming cut off either over the Southern Plains or Mississippi Valley. This is likely to be further complicated by the anticipated tropical system that is expected to develop across the Gulf of Mexico this week. Regardless, the net result is the renewed potential for rain for parts of the area late in the week as an upper low lingers overhead (or nearby). Did not deviate much from the NBM temperature and PoP forecast through the long term given the model disagreement. 12 Previous Discussion: /Tuesday through Saturday/ The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve encountered of late. A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller- scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms, will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that point onward through Saturday. The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower 80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the central counties. These values were consistent with those offered by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A broken line of storms along an approaching cold front will remain northwest of the TAF sites for most of the evening. FROPA at the Metroplex TAF sites will be around 05Z and Waco closer to sunrise. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany the front, but the loss of instability should limit the coverage of storms overnight. MVFR stratus will move in behind the front before sunrise Monday, remaining in place until around midday. Low clouds will lift and scatter at all TAF sites by 18Z with VFR the remainder of the afternoon. The exiting shortwave trough on Monday afternoon will keep all storms well east of the TAF sites. A south to southeast wind this evening will turn to the north behind the front initially and more northwesterly on Monday. Sustained wind speeds will be between 8 and 12 knots, but some higher gusts could accompany any thunderstorm. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 80 68 86 66 / 30 30 20 20 40 Waco 72 87 70 87 66 / 20 20 20 30 40 Paris 70 83 63 85 62 / 20 40 20 20 30 Denton 66 80 63 87 63 / 40 40 20 20 40 McKinney 69 82 65 87 63 / 30 40 20 20 40 Dallas 71 83 68 87 65 / 30 30 20 20 40 Terrell 72 85 66 86 64 / 20 30 20 30 30 Corsicana 74 88 70 88 67 / 10 20 20 30 30 Temple 72 90 69 89 66 / 20 20 20 30 40 Mineral Wells 65 80 63 86 63 / 50 40 30 30 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$