Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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636 FXUS64 KFWD 240905 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 405 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ Mostly clear skies and humid conditions are in place across North Texas tonight with some low clouds starting to develop across our southeast counties. Our remnant frontal boundary appears to be draped across the Hill Country at this hour, but the sharpest 925-850 mb theta-e axis is lined up just south of I-20. Satellite imagery shows an expanding elevated cumulus field developing across the Big Country, likely aided by weak warm advection atop this boundary. For the remainder of tonight, we`ll likely see an uptick in scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 into the early morning hours. Limited elevated instability should keep the coverage of thunderstorms in check a bit. We`ll have some 20-30% PoPs to account for this activity with a gradual decrease in coverage through the late morning hours. Tuesday afternoon should be relatively quiet and warm with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s across the region. Meanwhile, a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the Southern Plains and Mid South region tonight and will send another weak cold front into North Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. We`ll have 50-60% PoPs late Tuesday night across the northern half of the CWA as this disturbance moves through. Any lingering activity should diminish through the early morning hours on Wednesday with drier and slightly cooler air filtering into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 80s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to mid 80s. Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday. As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%) across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances, slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and Saturday. This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper 80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period. Gordon && .AVIATION... /Issued 1231 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail for much of the night, but areas of MVFR cigs/vis will likely develop mainly to the south of Waco along with some scattered showers during the overnight hours. A brief window of MVFR vis in 5SM BR is possible throughout the D10 airspace during the early morning hours, but much of the precipitation should remain to the south. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight, or a light westerly component into the early morning hours before a more southwesterly wind becomes established during the day. VFR should prevail much of the day Tuesday with another weak cold front moving into the area tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany this front and have added a VCTS from 25/09Z in the DFW TAF. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 67 83 63 83 / 5 50 10 0 5 Waco 87 67 83 61 83 / 30 30 20 0 5 Paris 87 63 83 59 81 / 0 60 10 5 5 Denton 89 64 83 59 83 / 0 50 10 0 5 McKinney 89 64 84 60 83 / 0 50 10 0 5 Dallas 90 67 84 63 84 / 5 40 10 0 5 Terrell 89 64 83 60 83 / 5 40 10 0 5 Corsicana 90 67 84 62 84 / 20 30 20 0 5 Temple 89 67 85 60 86 / 30 20 20 0 5 Mineral Wells 89 64 83 58 83 / 10 40 10 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$