647
FXUS64 KFWD 270536
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

A stagnant weather pattern will persist into the weekend due to
the blocking implications of Helene on the mid-level flow regime.
This setup will support light northerly flow through the column,
with a fetch of dry air maintaining low humidity at the surface
characterized by dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s both today
and tomorrow. A fairly pleasant early fall weekend will be the
result, despite high temperatures climbing to above normal values
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A plume of mid/high cloud cover
associated with Helene should overspread parts of northeast Texas
tomorrow, perhaps holding highs a couple of degrees lower than
today. The low dewpoints will allow overnight lows to fall very
effectively, with a handful of readings in the 50s possible
outside of urban environments. Overhead subsidence and a dearth of
column moisture will keep rain chances at zero through the short
term period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made with this latest forecast update.
Seasonably pleasant weather conditions will last through the
weekend into next week, with a gradual warming trend continuing
across all of North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs will range
in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.
Uncertainty grows beyond the start of next week, where there is a
low chance for the passage of another cold front sometime in the
middle of next week. Continue to check back for updates!

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night Onward/

A rain-free and mostly seasonable forecast is in store for the
next several days. North and Central Texas will remain generally
under the influence of drier, northerly flow aloft through the
next week, with ridging situated to the west and troughing across
the eastern U.S.

Highs this weekend will reach the mid and upper 80s with overnight
lows in the low/mid 60s, with the exception of some locations out
west dropping into the upper 50s. The start of the work week will
be slightly above normal with a few readings in the low 90s as
ridging expands further east. An upper level trough will extend
south out of Canada and shift east early next week, sending a
cold front through much of the Plains and into the Midwest.
Currently, this doesn`t look to have much cold air behind it for
North & Central Texas, and will likely not have much of an impact
on temperatures; however, there is not much run to run consistency
yet on the strength of this front and how far south the trough
will dig.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR/SKC will prevail through the period with a north wind. While
speeds are currently light at 5 kts or less, expect an increase
to 10-15 kts later today with a few gusts near 20 kts this
afternoon.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  88  65  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                62  89  60  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               62  85  61  86  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              61  88  60  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            61  88  62  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              65  89  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             62  88  61  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           64  89  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              61  91  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       60  89  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$