Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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658 FXUS63 KGID 241128 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers moving southeast through the area are expected to depart after sunrise this morning. - High temperatures are expected to remain pretty steady this week, ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. - The 7 day forecast looks to be dry, with the closest rain gets with this forecast would be into eastern Kansas Friday night / Saturday morning (precipitation chances stop just southeast of our forecast area). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Today and tonight... Early this morning, rain showers associated with a cold front are making their way southeast across the area. These are expected to depart south central Nebraska and north central Kansas by shortly after sunrise, with skies quickly clearing this afternoon. Behind the front this morning, winds will turn to the north and increase to 10-15 mph. An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will move east into the Salt Lake Valley and the Intermountain West. With the upper trough moving east out of the area into Iowa and Missouri, a strong northerly jet will set up over the forecast area. As the ridge begins to move into the area, temperatures will be a little warmer today than they were yesterday, with highs up to at least the mid to upper 70s. Tonight, the upper trough will slide a little further to the east but not far, serving to block the upper ridge from moving completely over the central Plains. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 40s across our northern and northwestern counties to around 50 degrees across north central Kansas. Wednesday... The upper level pattern will start to split into a northern and southern track at this point. The northern track over Canada and the northern Plains will continue to progress eastward. In the southern track, which will be the portion affecting our forecast area, the upper level ridge will continue to be stuck over the Rockies and southwestern US and the previously mentioned upper low will only progress as far as Arkansas. With the upper ridge elongating over portions of the forecast area Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be warmer with afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 80 degrees in most locations. Ensemble solutions indicate a 15-20% chance of some areas north and west approaching or exceeding 85 degrees, and this would make sense as our western counties should be more heavily impacted by the ridge. Thursday and Friday... The upper ridge will remain mostly locked in place and that upper level trough will start rotating in place (still centered in Arkansas). This will be due in large part to a tropical system that will be moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical system will make landfall in Florida at some point Thursday afternoon or evening, by which time the upper low and tropical system will start displaying evidence of the Fujiwhara effect (where the two systems rotate around a common center point). With our forecast area sandwiched in between the ridge and this region of low pressure, the main question will be whether the low wobbles far enough north as it rotates to bring any rain to our area. Unfortunately, it doesn`t look like it as the latest model guidance continues to keep rainfall mainly over Missouri and far eastern Kansas. With the pattern over our area much the same, temperatures also will not change much with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s expected both days. Saturday through next Monday... By the weekend, the two areas of low pressure will merge into one and the system will start to meander northeast before getting caught in the main upper flow Monday, allowing it to move along faster afterward. The ridge will start to show signs of progressing Monday as well. High temperatures should be much the same, upper 70s and low 80s. Beyond this, model guidance diverges significantly with some solutions extending that ridge over the area through much of next week, with others dropping a trough across the area around the middle of next week. Am leaning toward the warmer, drier ridge-like pattern and the CPC outlook also favors a warmer and drier pattern, but it is way too early to forecast that with any confidence. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northerly winds at around 5 kts will increase to 9 to 12 kts by 24/15Z and persist through the day. Winds will diminish to light and variable after sunset. Expect some mid-level cloud cover through the day (7k to 10k ft AGL ceilings) and cirrus clouds into the evening. Clear skies are expected after sunset through the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford