Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
268 FXUS63 KGID 270934 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 434 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures (mostly 80s) and dry conditions through the weekend with a brief cool down to near normal (upper 60s and lower 70s) next Tuesday. - Dry fuels and low afternoon relative humidity values across the region are resulting in an increasing fire weather threat, with the addition of strong north winds Monday afternoon likely resulting in near-critical fire weather concerns across at least parts of the local area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Another quiet night across the region with just a few high clouds streaming across the local area visible on satellite. As was done yesterday, continued to hedge high temperatures on the warm side of guidance the next couple of days as relatively low dew points and good mixing should allow temperatures to continue to overachieve as high pressure aloft remains in control of the local weather pattern. A quick passing upper level trough and surface cold front is expected to bring breezy/strong north winds across the area on Monday, followed by a brief cool down to near climatological norms for Tuesday afternoon. Thanks to winds potentially gusting as high as 40 MPH Monday afternoon, expect to see elevated if not near critical fire weather concerns across the local area as fuels have officially cured for the season and relative humidity values will fall below 30 percent across much of the local area. Depending on the timing of the surface front and the associated strong north winds in its wake, how widespread fire weather concerns will ultimately be is still in question, but for the time being model consensus focuses the worst conditions near and north of interstate 80. Thereafter, cooler weather will fill in behind the cold front for Tuesday, although temperatures will still be fairly near seasonable norms...before rapidly climbing back above normal by Wednesday. As the upper level flow then becomes more zonal for the remainder of the period, continued warm temperatures (70s) will continue through the end of next week and likely beyond, which will still be solidly above the rapidly falling climatology for this time of year. While the flow will be more zonal, there are no notable disturbances to speak of and surface moisture will be lacking, likely resulting in dry weather continuing through the first full week of October. Latest ensemble guidance not indicating much in the way of precip chances returning until around the 10th of October, and even that looks pretty iffy at the moment. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with just a few passing high clouds, good visibilities and generally light winds less than 12 KTS. Late tonight...a few cirrus clouds can be seen on satellite streaming across the local area from the west. Off and on high clouds are expected to continue to move across the local area through the period with generally light southerly winds becoming light and variable towards daybreak as a weak trough of low pressure crosses the area. This should shift the winds...with predominantly northeasterly winds less than 10 KTS expected to develop by the late morning or early afternoon hours...and then persisting through the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi