687
FXUS63 KGID 251948
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
248 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A little breezy Thursday from southerly winds 10-15 MPH gusting as
high as 20-25 MPH.

- Highs through SUN will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s.

- A dry forecast for the next 7 days. The chance for precipitation
remains below 5% areawide.

- A cold front dipping into the region MON night may temporarily
  drop temps TUES (upper 60s to low 70s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tonight...

Quiet weather will finish out the day today as high pressure makes
itself comfortable across the broad plains and much of the central
U.S. Highs will climb back up into the upper 70s to lower 80s with
overnight temperatures falling as low as the mid 40s to lower 50s. A
few cirrus clouds may ride the northerly jet aloft this evening as
an amplified ridge stretching up into western Canada crosses over
into the Central and Great Plains. General subsidence (mid and upper
level sinking), typically found underneath the ridge, will dampen
any precipitation chance. Winds will stay light and variable through
the night.

Thursday through Sunday...

A stronger surface pressure gradient, caused by a weak surface low
creeping in from the eastern side of the Wyoming rockies, will
introduce 10-15 MPH southerly winds with gusts as high as 20 MPH to
the area Thursday. It is possible to even see isolated gusts as high
as 25 MPH in our north and west counties (up towards Dawson and
Valley counties). This may become the breeziest day until Monday
when a cold font (looking more probable) may break up the southerly
established flow. Fire weather concerns continue to stay marginal
for Thursday as the minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop to
30-40% in the day, driest to the north and west (not low enough for
fire weather concern).

Clear skies under weak steering flow will allow temperatures to
build into the low to mid 80s, a few degrees warmer from Wednesday.
This gradual warming will maintain through the weekend with a
majority of the daily highs staying in this temperature range (upper
70s to mid 80s). Through the weekend, blocked upper level flow from
a cutoff low centered over the Central Mississippi River Basin
(MO/AR/TN/MS/KY), will keep things quiet in Central NE/KS. A few
clouds may spill into our southern and eastern edges Friday from the
outflow of the now Hurricane Helene. The area will remain dry with
now little influence of the low`s position as it has continued to
shift eastward with the consecutive forecast trend.

Monday and Tuesday...

A cold front monday night may flip the scrip up from the otherwise
peaceful weather system pattern. Precipitation chances at this time
remain limited (<5%) due to the lack of consistency and low forecast
confidence. An upper level trough will dig southward starting
Monday, propelling the cold front south and east. A temperature
decrease will be the most substantial effect as highs are expected
to fall from the upper 70s to low 80s down to the upper 60s to low
70s for Tuesday. A swath of dry air will accompany behind the front
as dry continental air from Canada sinks down south, dropping the
regional moisture content. Gusty winds could play a factor in
highlighting near critical fire weather concerns past Tuesday.
Confidence of impact remains low as this event is 6 days out. The
forecast of the cold front is less of an if question and more of a
when, where and what will the impact be.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Clear
skies with calm and variable winds should pertain through the
night. Winds Thursday morning will start to pick up after 15z
from the south (up to 10 MPH through the remainder of the TAF
period).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump