Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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978 FXUS63 KGID 260529 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A little breezy Thursday from southerly winds 10-15 MPH gusting as high as 20-25 MPH. - Highs through SUN will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s. - A dry forecast for the next 7 days. The chance for precipitation remains below 5% areawide. - A cold front dipping into the region MON night may temporarily drop temps TUES (upper 60s to low 70s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tonight... Quiet weather will finish out the day today as high pressure makes itself comfortable across the broad plains and much of the central U.S. Highs will climb back up into the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight temperatures falling as low as the mid 40s to lower 50s. A few cirrus clouds may ride the northerly jet aloft this evening as an amplified ridge stretching up into western Canada crosses over into the Central and Great Plains. General subsidence (mid and upper level sinking), typically found underneath the ridge, will dampen any precipitation chance. Winds will stay light and variable through the night. Thursday through Sunday... A stronger surface pressure gradient, caused by a weak surface low creeping in from the eastern side of the Wyoming rockies, will introduce 10-15 MPH southerly winds with gusts as high as 20 MPH to the area Thursday. It is possible to even see isolated gusts as high as 25 MPH in our north and west counties (up towards Dawson and Valley counties). This may become the breeziest day until Monday when a cold font (looking more probable) may break up the southerly established flow. Fire weather concerns continue to stay marginal for Thursday as the minimum relative humidity is forecast to drop to 30-40% in the day, driest to the north and west (not low enough for fire weather concern). Clear skies under weak steering flow will allow temperatures to build into the low to mid 80s, a few degrees warmer from Wednesday. This gradual warming will maintain through the weekend with a majority of the daily highs staying in this temperature range (upper 70s to mid 80s). Through the weekend, blocked upper level flow from a cutoff low centered over the Central Mississippi River Basin (MO/AR/TN/MS/KY), will keep things quiet in Central NE/KS. A few clouds may spill into our southern and eastern edges Friday from the outflow of the now Hurricane Helene. The area will remain dry with now little influence of the low`s position as it has continued to shift eastward with the consecutive forecast trend. Monday and Tuesday... A cold front monday night may flip the scrip up from the otherwise peaceful weather system pattern. Precipitation chances at this time remain limited (<5%) due to the lack of consistency and low forecast confidence. An upper level trough will dig southward starting Monday, propelling the cold front south and east. A temperature decrease will be the most substantial effect as highs are expected to fall from the upper 70s to low 80s down to the upper 60s to low 70s for Tuesday. A swath of dry air will accompany behind the front as dry continental air from Canada sinks down south, dropping the regional moisture content. Gusty winds could play a factor in highlighting near critical fire weather concerns past Tuesday. Confidence of impact remains low as this event is 6 days out. The forecast of the cold front is less of an if question and more of a when, where and what will the impact be. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: High confidence VFR conditions through the period with clear skies and good VSBYS anticipated. Overnight...expect light winds to persist at both terminals as surface winds have decoupled and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient remains in place across the region. Winds should increase out of the south during the morning hours Thursday as low pressure intensifies on the lee side of the Rockies and surface high pressure remains to our east...with wind gusts near 20KTS possible for much of the afternoon hours. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Rossi