Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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961 FXUS63 KGID 250503 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs through the rest of the week will generally range in the mid 70s to lower 80s. - A dry forecast for the next 7 days. The chance for precipitation remains below 10% areawide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tonight... Scattered light showers from early this morning may be the only precipitation that the area receives in the next week. The continuation of this dry period falls as the deeper troughing extending through the MO/MS River Valley regions continues to scoot east to make room for amplified ridging currently over the Desert SW/Rockies. Central Nebraska and Kansas this evening finds itself split between these two features, a pocket favorable for sinking air and suppressed precipitation chances. This pocket is also where you`ll find the strong northerly jet aloft, a feature that will show itself from a bit of thin and high wispy cirrus above the low level cumulus the rest of this afternoon into early this evening. Highs today will stick it out in the mid to upper 70s to low 80s, falling as low as the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight. Winds will stay out of the north through the evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Wednesday through Thursday... High pressure building at the surface combined with the downstream eastward propagation of the mid to upper level ridge will continue the dry spell onward. Clear skies will allow temperatures to creep up a degree or two warmer from Tuesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind will stay light and variable throughout the day from the absence of any consequential surface pressure gradient. Meanwhile, more blocking of the upper level flow occurs as the trough overhead from this past weekend becomes cut off from the main flow. This low gets locked in place over the central Mississippi valley. This low will contribute to the quiet weather pattern in place with some influence later on Friday. Highs Thursday will stay fairly the same (upper 70s to lower 80s) with a 20-30% chance for a few areas to the north and west of the Tri-Cities to stretch as high as the mid 80s. Winds will be light (5 to 10 MPH) and out of the south. Friday through Saturday... The Central Nebraska and Kansas area aloft will become sandwiched by the cut off low to the southeast and the Great Plains ridging to the north. Precipitation chances have fallen to virtually non- existent (<10%) Friday for the southern and eastern areas. It is looking less likely for the deep moisture from the land falling tropical system to stretch as far north and west into the Central Plains. Even with the help of the moisture conveyor belt around the cutoff low, the rain foot from system outflow may only reach into a few parts of eastern Kansas. The most that our coverage area may receive is a few clouds from this system. Otherwise, temperatures will look to follow the weekly trend (upper 70s to lower 80s). Fire weather is not of immediate concern so far this week, however, it is creeping closer and closer with the steady drying out of surface moisture. Relative humidity this week may bottom as low as 25-30% during the day, a typical site for this time of year. Any influx of wind can quickly flip the script. Sunday and beyond... General broad high surface pressure will stick around early next week from the influence of the blocked flow pattern heading into the weekend. Temperatures will be expected to once again start off a touch above average (upper 70s to lower 80s, around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average). The current leading scenario out of several possible outcomes includes a strong cold front that may dip down front Canada next Tuesday. If this scenario plays out, it could bring the next areawide precipitation chance or a temporary shift back down to near normal temperatures at the very least. Confidence remains low this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions with clear skies and light and variable winds (5 kts or less) are expected through the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Hickford