004
FXUS63 KGLD 271017
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through the upcoming weekend.

- Near critical to briefly critical fire weather conditions are
  possible along and west of the Colorado border Saturday
  through Monday afternoons.

- Near to below average temperatures expected in the wake of a
  dry cold frontal passage early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Today we will get to see a pattern transition over the Great Plains
as an upper trough moves over the Rockies and across the region.
This trough is expected to push the ridge south as it moves
southeast to interact with our "no-rain providing system" from last
weekend and Hurricane Helene over the eastern CONUS. This
interaction will lead to the upper trough lingering over the Tri-
State area through Saturday while the ridge builds back up over the
Rockies. Near the surface a broad area of high pressure will
strengthen over the Colorado Rockies into the Black Hills, keeping
the area dry.

Temperatures will be above normal in the 80s to lower 90s the
next two days. There is some concern for near critical to
briefly critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon
along and west of the Colorado border as RH values fall below
20% and south to southeast winds gust to 20 mph. Overnight lows
will likely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 416 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Sunday and Monday continue to be forecast to be warm with highs
around 90 with the influence from the upper ridge. Both days also
have concerns for some critical fire conditions (mainly counties
along the Colorado border) as the dry conditions are forecast to
continue for the area. The question Sunday is how strong winds will
get with the ridge overhead, they may be too light to reach critical
levels. Monday is dependent on the timing of the frontal passage.
The remnants of the hurricane upstream may still have a blocking low
that could delay the passage of the front. If the front move through
later in the day, temperatures could warm to 90 and RH drop into the
teens while the increase in height and pressure gradient allows
winds to increase with gusts to 30-35 mph. This seems to be the more
likely scenario, but there is still some decent spread in the models
so will see if it holds.

Once the front passes, temperatures should be cooler for at least
one day (likely Tuesday unless the front is early Monday). After
that, the mid week would likely moderate a bit with some zonal flow.
How long that lasts is the question as guidance has quite a bit of
variance in how the upper pattern varies with some blocking in the
east still possible. Currently leaning towards hot and dry with some
upper ridging suggested by ensembles. Temps could warm back towards
90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A southerly
wind up to 11kts at taf issuance will veer to the northwest
through sunrise Friday morning. Northwesterly to northeasterly
winds are forecast through the day with speeds up to 11kts with
an occasional gust. After 03z, winds become light and variable.

KMCK...VFR conditions will occur through the period. A light and
variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 19z,
becoming northeasterly at speeds under 10kts from 20z through
the rest of the taf period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...99