Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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602 FXUS63 KGLD 231238 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 638 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight chance of sprinkles and light showers tonight into Tuesday morning. - Near average temperatures and dry conditions forecast for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Through the day today, a 500mb ridge from the southwest will be keeping the sky clear today as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be light and southerly for most of the day, until the afternoon when a very weak surface low will cause winds in the eastern CWA to become northerly. By 0Z, the low will have dissipated and southerly winds will be returning. Around 3Z Tuesday a trough, with an associated surface cold front, starts moving into the northern parts of the area that could bring in some sprinkles or light showers. This trough is extending from a low pressure system moving southeast across the Northern Plains into Missouri. The additional cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures near 50. The sprinkles are most likely to occur near a line from Hill City, KS to Trenton, NE between 6Z and 18Z. These sprinkles are not expected to amount to measurable precipitation. By Wednesday 0Z, we will be seeing northerly flow throughout the column with the low to our east and a developing high to the west. This pattern will continue through Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will clear out the sky again, allowing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday night to cool into the lower to mid 40s. Day time heating will capitalize on the clear skies, with Tuesday warming into the mid to upper 70s with Wednesday warming to near 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 As we move into the latter half of the week, a giant ridge extending across the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch the side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains. This pattern will unfortunately lead to dry conditions most likely through early next week. There is a cutoff system that sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This system does meander and retrograde some late in the week. The ECMWF shows the best potential for some increased moisture to work towards the eastern CWA, but the overall trend keeps this east of the area. Temperatures throughout the long term are expected to be slightly above average for the highs and lows. High temperatures have been fluctuating between the mid 70s to lower 80s each day. Overnight lows could be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 507 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for both KGLD and KMCK through the period. Light and variable winds are also expected to last through the period, with winds from the north starting to increase around 12Z tomorrow. There is a slight chance (~10-15%) KMCK could see some light showers after 6Z, but no impacts are expected. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...KMK AVIATION...CA