891
FXUS63 KGRB 270339
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected late tonight through
  9am Friday. The fog is most likely in the areas just inland from
  the lake and bay, and across parts of north central WIsconsin.

- Warm temperatures to prevail through the end of the work week,
  with highs running between 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Only slight chances for rain this weekend as residual moisture
  from Helene is primarily shunted to our south and east. The next
  chance of precipitation is expected to arrive Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Friday

Scattered clouds will dissipate early this evening, allowing for
areas of dense fog to form again late tonight and continue through
around 9am Friday. The areas just inland from the lake and bay
are mostly likely to see the fog. There could also be some fog
in the usual places in northcentral Wisconsin. Low temperatures
tonight will be a few degrees above normal, and highs Friday will
be a summer like ten degrees above normal.

Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday

The forecast remains predominantly dry through the forecast
period, with only a couple opportunities for some light
precipitation. Temperatures for the extended period will continue
to run above normal.

Precipitation...
Any precipitation for the weekend seems less likely as of this
issuance, with most forecast models keeping the remnants of
Hurricane Helene well south and east of the area. As such, removed
the minor pops we had in the forecast for the Sunday evening to
early Monday timeframe. If this trend reverses, it would likely
only bring some small pops into east-central Wisconsin.

The second chance for some active weather will arrive along a fast
moving upper trough that will cross the Great Lakes regions
sometime late Monday through Tuesday. As of this forecast, severe
remains unlikely, especially if the timing brings the trough
through the area Tuesday morning. That said, dynamic forcing
coupled with some steeper mid-level lapse rates could still
produce at least a few rumbles of thunder across northern
Wisconsin.

Temperatures...
Well above normal temperatures will persist in the forecast
through the weekend, with highs into the middle to upper 70s and a
few lower 80s. After the passage of the upper trough early next
week, some cooler air will work its way into the region, bringing
high temperatures back down into the middle to upper 60s.

The arrival of the cooler air will bring the chance for some frost
to the region Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Some ground fog is likely late tonight through 13z Friday, mainly
just inland from the bay and Lake Michigan, and across parts of
north central Wisconsin, under mostly clear skies and light winds.
It will be another sunny day Friday once the ground fog
dissipates, with excellent visibility and VFR conditions expected
into Friday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....RDM/Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski