Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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496 FXUS61 KGYX 270227 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1027 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Much needed rainfall continues this evening, tapering off tonight. Dry weather returns tomorrow into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead. The next chance for rainfall comes toward mid week next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1020 PM Update...Rain has moved out of most of the forecast area except for southern NH. That area should be rain-free around or shortly after midnight. Otherwise, fog will be the main story for the balance of the night. 7 PM Update...Back edge of rain shield continues to move eastward through the forecast area at this time and should exit the coast before midnight. Otherwise, thereafter we expected clouds to continue to linger along with the development of fog. Previously... Widespread rainfall is continuing at this hour with many interior locations reporting 24 hr rain totals in the 1-1.5" range with an isolated gauge in Warren, NH showing 2". Southern New Hampshire and far Southern Maine have been largely left out to this point, but hi-res guidance continues to show their time to see some heavier showers comes with a band later this evening when the system is making its push out over the waters. This band looks less convective then yesterday as instability is unsurprisingly lacking, but an isolated rumble of thunder is not out of the questions as mechanical mixing and a potent upper level jet strengthen the band of showers and also bring brief gusty winds. Again, the gusty winds look most likely at the immediate coast and over the water. Showers taper off overnight leaving drizzle and then areas of fog in their wake. Nighttime lows will be limited to the upper 40s and low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper low exits the region tomorrow and high pressure begins to nose in from the north. The trend tomorrow will be clearing skies and temperatures warming into the 70s in the foothills and south of the mountains, and mid to upper 60s to the north. Nighttime lows get a little cooler Friday night under partly cloudy skies with mid- to upper 40s to the north and low 50s south. Winds will be calm so some patchy fog may develop in the usual valleys. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As a trough of low pressure remains to our east over the upcoming weekend, a ridge of high pressure will build overhead. This will leave the region with a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures above normal for late September, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s from north to south. High pressure in Eastern Canada will remain in control of New England as we head into next week. The remnants of Helene will remain to our south leaving us with dry conditions. As a trough of low pressure reaches the tropical moisture over the Mid Atlantic region, there have been some hints within the ensemble and operational solutions suggesting some type of cyclogenesis or low formation off the southern New England coastline by midweek. Will continue to monitor as we remain in a complex pattern. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...A mixed bag of restrictions will continue through tonight as rain continues to move through the region and than fog and drizzle develop in its wake. Many if not all of the TAF sites will likely be IFR/LIFR for a period overnight. Convection seems less likely this evening for CON, MHT, PSM, and PWM, but can`t be ruled out. Winds may gust 15-20kts at the sites as the front pushes out of the area. Long Term...VFR should be the prevailing condition right through the weekend. Winds will be light with gusts generally 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... Short Term...Max wave heights remain 5-6ft through Friday morning, decreasing through the day with offshore winds. A period of westerly wind gusts 25-30kts is possible early tonight as the front moves out over the waters. Long Term...Below SCA criteria through the weekend. A general northeasterly flow will prevail through the period, however will remain relatively light. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION... MARINE...