Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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173 FXUS64 KHGX 242345 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 645 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Radar imagery has blossomed with scattered light to moderate rain and a few lightning strikes, coinciding with peak afternoon heating and the interaction with a weak/stalled frontal boundary extended over the region. Low to mid level instability, low level moisture and surface convergence will be enough to spark additional showers and storms through the evening hours. A mild night with patchy fog and spotty showers is anticipated. The aforementioned frontal boundary will weaken/wash out tonight. However, a secondary and stronger front will move across SE TX by Wednesday as the main mid/upper level trough moves through Middle/Lower MS Valley. This FROPA will keep rain/storm chances through early Wednesday evening. At the moment, the severe weather risk is low. Wednesday`s highs will climb into the mid 90s. The good news is that a drier airmass will bring dew points into the upper 50s to upper 60s degF range Wednesday night into Thursday. Therefore, a comfortable night is expected with lows in the 60s and low 70s. JM && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Closed low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will keep northerly flow in place behind the cold front, allowing for cooler and drier conditions through the end of the work week. This should bring near-normal temperatures with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the the 60s inland to lower 70s along the coastline. Isolated locations across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area could see low drop below the 60 degree mark during this period. Moisture and PVA wrapping around the closed low aloft could bring isolated showers/storms across portions of the Piney Woods area on Friday into the early weekend. Regardless, PWs largely under 1 inch will keep rain chances low for much of the region. Over the weekend, the aforementioned close low lifts north towards the Tennessee/Ohio Valley. As it does, ridging slowly builds over the Four Corners, with temperatures and moisture progged to rise into the beginning of next week. Northerly flow regime aloft should stiffen this warming trend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s next week. Lows should remain in the 60s inland to 70s near the coast. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Lingering SHRA/TSRA along a weak frontal boundary continue to move through the area. This could result in a few stronger (but not severe) wind gusts over the next few hours, along with temporary reductions in visibility due to rainfall. Activity will generally diminish after 03Z, after which mostly VFR conditions can be expected overnight. A brief window of patchy fog and/or MVFR cigs can`t totally be ruled out before sunrise. Tomorrow, a second, more cohesive frontal boundary will move through the area, bringing with it a shift to NE and later N winds as well as scattered SHRA. Isolated TSRA can`t be ruled out later in the afternoon, but with low confidence in location/extent have not included VCTS for this period just yet. Will need to keep a close eye on the ~20Z to ~02Z period tomorrow for any changes regarding thunderstorm development, particularly along and south of the I-10 corridor. Clearing conditions will follow the passage of the frontal boundary tomorrow night. Cady && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Light to moderate winds, low seas and isolated rain chances can be expected through the end of the day. Onshore winds today will shift to the northeast on Wednesday, with rain chances increasing as a cold front pushes south towards the coastline. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by early Thursday morning as northerly winds approach 20 knots and seas rise to 4 to 6 feet. Winds and seas decrease through the end of the work week, with predominantly offshore flow prevailing into the weekend. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 89 65 86 / 30 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 92 69 87 / 30 40 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 88 74 86 / 20 30 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...Cady MARINE...03