695
FXUS64 KHGX 252328
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A transition to drier and less humid conditions begins today and
should persist through at least the next few days. A cold front,
currently extending along the coastal counties will continue to
move southeastward this afternoon. Sufficient moisture, daytime
heating and low-level convergence have resulted in scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead and along of the boundary.
Additional post- frontal scattered activity can be expected
through early this evening, before the front finally moves off the
coast.

Latest sfc observations and satellite imagery show sfc high
pressure already moving across the TX Panhandle, beginning to push
a drier, slightly cooler and less humid airmass into the region.
Skies should gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight,
resulting in a cooler night with lows generally in the 60s and low
70s.

Thursday is shaping up to be drier and less humid as surface
dewpoints drop into the 50s and 60s degC. Highs will climb into
the mid to near 90. Tight pressure gradient will result in breezy
conditions, especially along the coast. A pleasant night can be
expected Thursday night into Friday with mostly clear skies and
overnight lows from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A closed low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will keep
northerly flow in place behind the cold front, bringing drier
conditions over the next several days. With moisture and PVA
wrapping around the closed low aloft, there is a non-zero chance
that some isolated showers/storms could develop across portions of
the Piney Woods area on Friday/Saturday. Still, drier conditions
with PWs largely under 1 inch will largely suppress rain chances.
The aforementioned close low should lift north towards the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley over the weekend. As it does, ridging slowly
builds over the Four Corners, with temperatures progged to rise
into early next week. Northerly flow should stiffen this warming
trend, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s next week.
Lows should remain in the 60s inland to 70s near the coast.
Isolated spots across the Piney Woods area could see lows drop
below the 60 degree mark. Global deterministic guidance suggests
that a shortwave trough will pass over the area on Monday/Tuesday,
bringing a second push of drier air into SE Texas later the the
week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Frontal boundary is pushing southward across our region this
evening. Scattered SHRA with isolated TSRA are expected from IAH
south to the coast this evening. All this activity should push
offshore by 02/03Z. Though mention of TS was left out of the TAF
at IAH, we cannot rule out a quick amendment over the next hour or
two if an isolated TS appears to be developing near by. But we
generally think that the best chance of TSRA activity will be
south of IAH. Winds will increase from the north to north-
northeast by tomorrow morning. All locations will experience VFR
conditions behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Light to moderate northeast winds and scattered showers/storms are
expected this afternoon/evening as a cold front pushes off the
coast. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect early Thursday
morning as northerly winds approach 20 knots and seas rise to 3 to 5
feet. Winds and seas decrease through the end of the work week, with
predominantly offshore flow prevailing over the weekend.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  65  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  87  66  90 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  86  71  87 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 4 AM CDT Thursday
     through Thursday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03