Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
452 FXUS64 KHGX 210823 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 323 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Ridging over SE Texas will continue to result in above normal temperatures this weekend. Onshore flow at the surface will continue to draw in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and create humid conditions across the area. Isolated showers may occur similar to yesterday with the sea breeze this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the 70s tonight and Sunday night. Low- level moisture, high pressure aloft, and calm winds, will contribute to patchy fog, with dense fog possible at times, this morning and again Sunday morning. Sunday will feature similar weather as the heat and humidity continue. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 While Astronomical Fall is in full swing by Monday, the weather around here this upcoming work week will still be feeling very summer-like. Upper-level ridging over the northern Gulf will help keep temperatures above normal for our area (though not as hot as we have been this past week). Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, and then low to mid 90s for the rest of the region through at least Wednesday. There is an upper- level low that will be swinging down through the Central and Southern Plains towards the later half of the week, but the exact timing and location of it is rather uncertain at this time. A short wave associated with this low may swing through our area as early as Wednesday helping to bring slightly drier and very slightly cooler conditions. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be 1 to 3 degrees cooler than the first half of the week with much of the area staying in the mid to upper 80s (with some isolated spots of low 90s west of Katy. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s for much of the area (and upper 70s along the coast) through Wednesday. Then similarly to the high temperatures, the lows will drop a few degrees for the second half of the week with much of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s. One other change from this past week to next week, is that with the high pressure not directly overhead, there will be daily chances of showers or storms developing along the sea breeze in the afternoons generally along and south of I-45. These storms will also help cool temperatures down locally wherever they pop-up. Fowler && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Areas of MVFR with localized IFR are expected again tonight. The best chance of fog will be over rural areas away from the immediate coast and outside of urbanized areas. Though there is some model guidance suggesting MVFR cigs could make into the city of Houston and impact IAH, we continue to opt for a scenario where the fog remains outside of the city. Any MVFR conditions should break by mid-morning. Saturday appears similar to Friday. However, a slightly steeper low-level gradient is expected to increase SE winds somewhat by the afternoon. Therefore, we decided to increase Saturday`s forecast winds by 2-3 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Much of the same conditions are expected through at least midweek next week. There will be light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day, then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low seas (1-3ft) will continue through the weekend and into next week. There will be increased chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters beginning Sunday night and continue through at least midweek next week. The NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure as it tracks through the Caribbean and into the Southern Gulf by the middle of next week. The NHC currently has a 50% (medium) probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it - but mariners should continue to monitor forecast updates for it from the NHC through the next several days. Fowler && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next week. Conditions are looking favorable for gradual development of this system and could become a tropical depression by late next week as it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 60% (medium) probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too much stock into any single deterministic model runs. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov. Batiste/Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 75 93 75 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 87 80 / 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Fowler AVIATION...Self MARINE...Fowler