Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
210 FXUS66 KHNX 241925 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1225 PM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue across the region with a moderate to high probability (35 to 55 percent) of temperatures reaching triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley today. 2. A cooling trend will take place on Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures will remain above normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend. 3. A dry week for the region is forecast for all of the interior of central California. Relative humidity values are projected to fall into the single digits during the afternoon hours for eastern Kern County. The rest of the area`s relative humidity values will fall into the low 20s. Overnight recoveries will be poor for the desert and higher elevations while moderate for the valley. && .DISCUSSION... Afternoon highs today are forecast to be the hottest of the week, with many locations seeing triple digit heat within reach. This is due to high pressure aloft that is over the Great Basin. Probabilistic guidance is showing about a 35-55% chance of afternoon highs reaching or exceeding 100*F in the San Joaquin Valley this afternoon, putting highs 12-14 degrees above average. This triple digit trend will not last long. A broad trough of low pressure will pass through the Pacific Northwest and knock down highs a few degrees Wednesday and again on Thursday in Central California. Precip is forecast to be confined to the north of our forecast area. The potential for winds to be slightly elevated exists, but not at advisory level. By Friday, highs rebound slightly after the passage of this upper low. A continuation of highs in the mid to upper 90`s exits on Saturday before another disturbance brings cooler conditions on Sunday, again knocking down highs a few degrees. Like the Wednesday/Thursday system, this is forecast to be a dry trough for us, so an uptick and winds is projected to occur but with no rain. By early next week, a broad area of high pressure in the Eastern Pacific is being depicted by ensemble models. Afternoon highs trending back upward early next week is conceivable with the EPAC ridge building back in. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 09/23/2024 14:52 EXPIRES: 09/24/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ab weather.gov/hanford