Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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644 FXUS63 KICT 241905 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers this afternoon and evening across southeast Kansas, but dry for most. - Slightly warmer temperatures through the weekend. - Rain chances return to southeast Kansas by Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates an upper jet nosing south across the Plains that has helped to touch off a few showers making their way across portions of central and eastern Kansas. At the surface, a relatively weak cold front stretches from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Mississippi River Valley and continues to push to the southeast. Slightly warmer daytime temperatures (middle 70s to lower 80s) are expected through the weekend despite today`s cold front thanks to westerly downslope flow. The global deterministic suite remains in agreement that the upper trough currently tracking over the Plains will become a cutoff semi-stationary low somewhere over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The location of this stallout will play a factor into what happens later on this week. A placement further east (e.g. over Tennessee) would support a warmer and drier pattern for the forecast area, while placement further west (e.g. over the Ozark Plateau) would support cooler and wetter conditions for the region. Though uncertainty for both scenarios remains high, the consensus is that the best chances for meaningful rain through the weekend will lie in southeast Kansas, especially if the oncoming tropical system manages to supply additional moisture to this already-potent system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers (20%) will continue across mainly east central and southeast KS through the afternoon and early evening hours. KSLN to KCNU have the greatest chances of seeing this activity. Can`t rule out a brief thunderstorm with gusty winds especially across southeast KS as we get into the later afternoon and evening. Given scattered nature will amend sites as needed to include precip chance. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light and variable winds will continue through much of the forecast period before settling to northerly by end of TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...KMB