Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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519 FXUS62 KILM 271341 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 941 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The center of now Hurricane Helene passes west of the area today, with a threat for moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes over the local area. Cool and dry high pressure returns this weekend into next week. && .UPDATE... Active tornado warnings in portions of across the forecast area. Will make a few modifications for the area behind the band of convection that is swinging across the forecast area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Helene is currently over southern GA and continues to race off to the north. As the storm approaches the southern Appalachians, a feeder band of convection will develop along the Gulf Stream and gradually mature in a increasingly unstable environment. Dry air advection aloft, currently being wrapped into the southern edge of the system over the FL panhandle, will lead to better lapse rates aloft and deeper convection along the established band. This period between 10Z and 17Z will see the greatest threat of tornadoes. Storm structure over portions of coastal SC and coastal GA have been very impressive overnight, although isolated after midnight. HREF ensembles continue to indicate that the environment will continue to be conducive for tornadic development as low level wind fields strengthen over coastal NC/SC. Ensemble updraft helicity tracks show the best potential will peak across the Cape Fear region with the final band of convection by mid and late morning. This coincides with increased convective potential as flow becomes more elongated along the Gulf Stream and peeks of sunshine assist with further destabilization. Dry air will quickly engulf the area after noon from south to north with clearing skies. Boundary layer mixing and strong wind fields in the low levels will promote gusts up to 45 mph this afternoon for both inland and coastal areas. The best chance of this occurring will be late morning to early afternoon across the Pee Dee region and early to mid afternoon in southeastern NC. Winds quickly abate during the late afternoon and early evening with a decoupling boundary layer. Expect partly cloudy (possibility of a few mid level clouds) to mostly clear skies and dry conditions overnight. Mid 60s expected inland and lower 70s likely along the Grand Strand and southeastern NC as light onshore flow continues. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Expect a return to dry weather Saturday as the remnants of Helene weaken and pass off to the NW. Despite an upr-level closed low being located west of the area, maintaining a rain- free forecast as an expansive dry slow is wrapped around the SE side of the low. This also allows for a sunny sky, with temps reaching the mid 80s. Low temps Saturday night in the mid 60s to lwr 70s under a slight increase in cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fairly quiet weather for the long term period. Main synoptic item of note is the aforementioned closed low finally opening up to a trough and shifting east through the local area then offshore. Slightly increasing deep-layer moisture will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday, but in general rain chances remain rather low. Dry weather mid to late week as weak sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Temps close to climatological norms this period with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s to lwr 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Band of convection pivoting across the area this morning will become oriented south to north over the next couple of hours. Heavy rain and strong winds are likely with this convection and some severe weather may also be observed at the terminals. LLWS also included, primarily for the convective band. Deeper mixing will produce wind gusts up to 45 knots across the area as the strong wind fields remain late this morning and through the afternoon. Gradual improvement is expected after the line of convection pushes north of the region. Winds drop to around 10 knots this evening as mixing ceases. VFR and drying overnight. Extended Outlook... VFR should return through the weekend under high pressure. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions will continue today as strong winds, waterspouts, and high seas persist. Waterspouts associated with a band of convection will move south to north across the area beginning around sunrise and continue through the early afternoon. Convection should come to an end thereafter with drier air moving into the area. Gusts will gradually improve overnight with elevated seas will slowly improve as well. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through Saturday morning and an advisory will replace the Tropical Storm Warning in SC waters. Saturday through Tuesday...Improving marine conditions through the day Saturday as the remnants of Helene weaken and push off to the NW. Maintained the SCA until noon Saturday as seas will take some time to drop below 6 ft. Thereafter through next week, expect mainly benign marine conditions with sustained winds no higher than 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding remains a threat this afternoon as onshore winds continue. Flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River will impact both sides of the river during the afternoon high tides today. Normal water levels should return this weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056- 058-059. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252. Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RH NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS/21 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...