Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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254 FXUS61 KILN 231906 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 306 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday through Thursday before a tropical system provides a chance of precipitation late this week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Low pressure tracking to Illinois tonight will push a band of lift and moisture to the ILN area. This will bring categorical showers and isolated thunderstorms to Western locations by 6 am, with a chance for showers and storms farther east. Insulating cloud cover and a humid airmass will help keep low temperatures up in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure tracks across Indiana on Tuesday, reaching Northern Ohio Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms developing in deep moisture and lift will overspread the ILN area. In addition to much-needed rainfall, severe threat will exist from an environment containing ample instability under potent winds aloft. Damaging straight line winds appear to be the main threat, while isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially in northern locations closer to the low center. As the low moves northeast Tuesday night, showers and storms will diminish from northwest to southeast. Highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the low 80s south and southeast will be followed by lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Higher precipitation chances on Wednesday will be focused across far southeastern portions of the forecast area. Precipitation chances Thursday through the remainder of the long term will be highly dependent on the tropical system south of the region. Have at least some precipitation chances in most of this time period, however as models come into better agreement precipitation chances will need to be fine tuned. Breezy conditions will also be possible, especially on Friday as the system nears the region. With cloud cover temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s for highs during the long term. Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s to middle 60s && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Aviation will be affected by low pressure tracking from the southwest. MVFR ceilings that persist behind the previous system should dissipate within a couple of hours, allowing a period of VFR this evening. For tonight through the end of the forecast, showers will develop and move across TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at all sites by Tuesday morning as low levels near saturation. Improvement back to VFR could occur Tuesday afternoon as mixing increases. Winds shifting to south should reach around 10 knots Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio