Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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336 FXUS61 KILN 250231 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1031 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will lift north into the Great Lakes with a weak, slow moving front stalling out over the region overnight into Wednesday. Thunderstorms will decrease with a threat for a few showers continuing overnight into Wednesday. An upper level low and remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will then provide chances of rainfall through for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Scattered thunderstorm developed across the area this afternoon in the moderately unstable airmass ahead of a weak front pushing in from the west. Loss of heating and instability has led to a decrease in storm coverage and intensity. This thunderstorm and shower activity will continue to decrease in coverage with a few remnant showers remaining possible overnight. During the overnight hours, low level clouds are forecast to develop, as well as some patchy fog. Expect lows from near 60 in outlying areas to the mid 60s in the urban locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Quite the complex upper level pattern throughout the short term and then eventually the long term periods with an elongated trough stretching southward from Canada all the way to the lower Mississippi Valley. A closed low in the middle Mississippi Valley provides constant mid and upper level moisture advection as it stalls Wednesday night. While overall rainfall amounts are expected to be light, there is a long duration of shower or light rain chances throughout the entire day, especially east of the I-75 corridor. A weak surface boundary moving slowly southeastward into eastern Indiana and western Ohio may spark a few showers into the area during the afternoon, but the boundary will dissolve as high pressure builds in across the lower Midwest Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday night, the combination of the now cut-off upper level low and Tropical Cyclone Helene results in a pressure pattern where a weak high pressure is positioned across the Great Lakes and Midwest with the low pressure to the south. Upper level diffluent flow still persists over southeast portions of the area primarily along and south of the I-71 corridor. As a result, mentions for rain persist, but overall rainfall amounts remain light. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Our region will be wedged between two mid level closed lows on Thursday. One will be spinning over the lower Mississippi River Valley while the other low will be pivoting east across southeast Canada and New England. Clouds and a chance of showers will persist, with the highest PoPs along and south of the Ohio River. Highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The track of Helene is coming into better focus, which it has now shifted more east into the middle Ohio Valley than the previous track which was more west into Missouri. That brings the remnants across our area Thursday night into Friday, with the system weakening and becoming absorbed into the mid level closed low to our southwest Friday night. This should bring a good chance of needed rain to our drought stricken region. Temperatures will be warm at night, in the 60s, with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Winds will be gusty on Friday, 25 mph to 25 mph due to a tightening pressure gradient. For the upcoming weekend, a chance of showers/slight chance of thunderstorms, will continue as the center of the mid level closed low slowly meanders east across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be persistent, lows in the 60s, and highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The mid level closed low is forecast to be pushed east by Monday/Tuesday as another large scale mid level trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes. Chance of rain will be lower as the first low moves away. Temperatures will cool some. Lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s will be followed by highs in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Scattered thunderstorm developed this aftn in the moderately unstable airmass ahead of a weak front pushing in from the west. With loss of heating expect thunderstorms to continue to decrease - the exception being the northwest closing to the frontal boundary. Have a mention of thunder at the KDAY TAF site to account for these storms. This thunderstorm activity will also decrease in coverage quickly this evening, with a few remnant showers overnight. During the overnight, low level clouds are forecast to develop, as well as patchy fog. Have stratus with MVFR to IFR cigs and generally MVFR vsbys developing. The exceptions are KLUK and KILN where have IFR vsby restrictions. Conditions gradually improve between 14Z and 18Z Wednesday becoming VFR. Additional showers on Wednesday aftn will be possible with the best coverage east of the TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night. Wind gusts between 30 to 35 mph possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis/AR NEAR TERM...BPP SHORT TERM...McGinnis/AR LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...AR