284
FXUS61 KILN 251842
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
242 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal system will initiate scattered showers and
storms today into Thursday. Tropical remnants will then bring
rain to close the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Morning update...
No major changes from the previous forecast. A weak boundary
continues to slide slowly from west to east, and is currently
along the I-71 corridor. Some scattered fog persists, but will
begin to lift through the mid-morning. The weak front and
diffluent air aloft will continue to aid in scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms east of the front (east of I-71),
however, can`t rule isolated showers to the west of the boundary
given the moist low-level air mass and afternoon warming.

Previous discussion...
An upper level low centered near St. Louis will continue to
sink south and cutoff from the main flow over the lower
Mississippi River Valley today. Low level moisture over the Ohio
Valley will keep considerable clouds across the region, with
only slow decay of morning stratus heading into the afternoon. A
stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will continue to
provide isolated to scattered showers and storms. The humid
atmosphere and clouds will keep high temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Complex mid and upper pattern continues tonight into Thursday as
the cut-off low wobbles near the mouth of the Ohio River.
Tropical moisture will flow north ahead of this low from the
eastern Gulf of Mexico into the central Appalachians and
eventually southern and eastern Ohio. Will continue scattered
showers and storms across the south, especially during the
afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in decent agreement with the remnants of Helene forecast
to track northward into the Tennessee Valley through the day on
Friday before getting wrapped into a deeper upper level low
situated over the central/lower Mississippi Valley. There is
then a little more uncertainty beyond that, but the trend is
toward the upper low then slowly weakening as it drifts east across
the Tennessee Valley through the weekend and across the central
Appalachians into early next week.

The pcpn shield associated with Helene will lift into our area from
the south later Thursday night and into the day on Friday.
Will have categorical pops across our southern areas, tapering
back to chance across our north, with the heaviest QPF generally
remaining along and south of the Ohio River. With a little more
uncertainty then arising with the track of the weakening low, will
mainly just linger some lower end pops through much of the remainder
of the long term period.

High temperatures will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s through the
period with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGs have generally improved to VFR this afternoon, but can`t
rule out brief periods of MVFR depending on cloud coverage. A
weak front has stalled over CMH/LCK, but is now east of the rest
of the sites. Winds are generally light and variable due to the
stagnant pattern.

Main focus for this TAF period will be the onset of MVFR CIGs
tomorrow morning between 10-14Z. Confidence is lower for
widespread IFR CIGs, but was high enough to include mention for
MVFR.

Winds remain light and variable through much of the TAF,
becoming northeasterly after 12Z Thursday. By the end of the
TAF, winds will be around 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Due to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene, wind
gusts between 30 and 35 knots and LLWS are possible Friday.


&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...McGinnis