Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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352 FXUS63 KILX 261539 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1039 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clouds will increase over areas southeast of the IL river during today as it remains dry across central IL into this evening. There is a 20-40% chance of light rain showers in southeast IL late this afternoon and evening. More widespread moderate rain showers will spread into southeast IL during overnight and Friday while a chance of lighter rain showers will get as far northwest as I-55 by Friday afternoon. A good chance of rain showers will occur over central IL this weekend, with likely chances of rain over southeast IL Friday night and Saturday where rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, with a 50-60% chance of greater than 2 inch rains from highway 50 south. The IL river valley to the northwest may only see a tenth inch or less of rainfall. - Strong northeast winds are expected to develop on Friday and continue Friday night as the remnants of Hurricane Helene move into the lower Ohio river valley. There is a 40-60% chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or higher from Friday afternoon into early Friday evening from I-55 east, with a 60-80% chance of wind gusts over 45 mph in southeast IL. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Skies are mostly clear across the CWA, but there is a little bit of CU in the east and southeast this morning. This will likely expand, but still lots of sunshine is expected for the rest of the day. Believe temps will still rise into the middle to upper 70s by this afternoon with northeast winds around 10 mph. Current forecast is on track with that, so no update planned at this time. Auten && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The early morning surface map shows weak 1014 mb high pressure over WI/IA and northern IL while a frontal boundary extended from the eastern Great Lakes southward through central Ohio, eastern parts of KY/TN and near the AL/GA border. Quiet weather prevailed over central/se IL with some cloud bands in east central/se IL and nearly clear skies from Gibson City to Decatur and Litchfield nw. Seasonably cool temps were in the mid to upper 50s, except lower 50s over the IL river valley. Fog is very limited so far this morning mainly patchy shallow fog near river valleys like the MS and IL. Aloft a 566 dm 500 mb low was near Paducah KY over mid MS river valley. Weak high pressure ridge to remain over the Great Lakes region today and ridging back over Iowa, and will keep central IL dry through at least this evening. More sunshine is expected over the IL river valley with mostly sunny skies overall today, while clouds increase over central IL this afternoon and becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in southeast IL. Isolated light showers possible se of I-70 late this afternoon and early evening with chance of light rain showers in southeast IL during mid/late evening. Highs were in the upper 70s to near 80F yesterday and feel similar temps expected today over much of the CWA, with areas nw of the IL river being the warmest where more sunshine expected through the day. NE winds increase a bit today with gusts up to around 20 mph. At 4 am cdt, Hurricane Helene was nw of Cuba with 90 mph winds and moving NNE at 12 mph. The NHC has Helene becoming a major hurricane in about 12 hours with 115 mph winds by 18Z/1 pm today and possible further strengthening before landfall over FL Big Bend by mid evening. Helene rapidly lifts northward across western GA tonight, reaching near Chattanooga by dawn Fri and then turning nw and tracking over central KY on Friday afternoon. Models have shifted track back further north/nw to rainfall amounts have trended higher over se CWA and NE winds have also come up further on Friday and Friday night. Surge of moisture to push nw over se half of CWA overnight into Friday while NE winds increase tonight with gusts to 30 mph or higher late tonight over southeast IL. NE winds increase further on Friday afternoon/early Fri evening with gusts could reach 35-45 mph east of the IL river, and potentially above 45 mph east of I-55 Fri afternoon and early Fri evening. Later shifts will need to monitor possible wind advisory if trends continue. Have likely to categorical pops in southeast IL Fri into Fri night while still dry from IL river nw on Friday with 20-40% pops over IL river valley by overnight Fri night. The remnants of Hurricane Helene gets absorbed by cutoff low moving into southern TN river valley Friday morning and into the lower Ohio river valley during Friday night as Helene gets absorbed into the cutoff low. The cutoff low and Helene remnants slowly lifts ne from the lower Ohio river valley Sat and into the mid Atlantic States by Monday. Chances of showers will linger this weekend, with likely pops yet in southeast IL on Saturday. Rainfall amounts by Saturday evening range from 1-2 inches in southeast IL with over 2 inches possible from highway 50 south, while nw of the IL river may only see less than a tenth inch. Of course track of Helene remnants will determine extent of rainfall, though currently looks like a sharp nw to se gradient of rainfall amounts, with beneficial rains expected over se CWA. WPC has marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall over southeast IL Fri and Fri night, with marginal risk in southeast IL by Wabash river valley on Saturday. A strong 590 dm 500 mb high over the 4 Corners of SW US to ride into the upper MS river valley during this weekend and gradually work closer to IL early next work week. Deterministic models differ on how fast this occurs and stayed close to model ensemble solution and blended forecast. This has slight chance of showers in eastern IL Monday then dry Monday night into middle of next week. A cold front passes through IL during overnight Monday night into Tue and has limited moisture while lift/forcing is north of IL, so front appears to pass through dry. Cooler temperatures behind the front for middle of next week as highs in the upper 70s to near 80F on Monday drop into the lower 70s central IL Tue and mid 70s in southeast IL. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Wed lows in the mid 40s to near 50F Tue and Wed nights. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 SCT diurnal cu and 5-10 kt northeast winds will be common across the terminals through this afternoon. Tonight we begin to feel the effects of Hurricane Helene approaching from the southeast. This will bring a lowering high/mid level (VFR) cloud deck and increasing northeast winds, gusting over 20 kt after 09z at KDEC- KCMI. These winds are forecast to increase further after 27/12z. 25 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$