470
FXUS63 KIWX 271734
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming windy today into early tonight; winds 20 to 35 mph
  with the highest wind gusts to 50 mph south of US 30.

- Showers at times today through Monday. Showers ending Tuesday.

- Mild for this time of year with highs in the 70 through
  Tuesday. Briefly cooler Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Hurricane Helene has moved inland over Georgia and was bringing
heavy rain and with winds still gusting to 80 mph early this
morning. This system will rapidly evolve and quickly merge with
a large cut off low that has been lingering near Memphis.
During this evolution, strong gusty winds are expected this
afternoon in the forecast area south of Highway 30 where winds
are expected to gust to 50 mph according to the latest ensemble
and high res models & guidance. Have kept the timing and
placement of the ongoing Wind Advisory. The center of the low
will linger near or just south of the Ohio River and bring
numerous chances for showers through Monday. Flooding rains are
not expected, but storm total rainfall is expected to be around
a inch from Marion to Lima. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are
expected the rest of this upcoming week with temperatures above
normal except briefly cooler Wednesday behind a front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

With the remnants of tropical cyclone Helene being ingested into an
upper system across the Tennessee Valley, the moisture and wind
field move northward with it, of course being mixed and diluted as
it does so. Given the high clouds, the gusty winds have been only
gradually increasing. FWA was observing 25 kts gusts at 15z. Still
expecting gusts to gradually increase to 30 to 35 kts by this
evening time, and these may be augmented by the rain coming down as
well. That rain was being reported back at Muncie and Logansport
around 15z, but may take until 19 to 22z or so to finally reach the
ground at FWA as it runs into a very dry airmass out in front of it.
Lowered CIGs and VISBY into MVFR likely holds off until 23 to 1z.
May go with an initial tempo group at 4z for IFR, but there does
appear to be some model disagreement on when a dry slot begins to
move in (around 9z or delayed until Saturday daytime) between the
CONSShort and RAP guidance that may cut off more prevailing IFR
timing. The above timing is for FWA, but SBN may be delayed by 4 to
6 hours as things run into that dry air. There may be a little bit
more confidence on IFR CIGs starting around 12z and carrying on into
the daytime for SBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for INZ013-015-020-
     022>026-032>034.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through
     late tonight for MIZ177.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday morning for MIZ277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Roller