Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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492 FXUS63 KIWX 261725 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today with variable cloudiness and high temperatures in the mid-70s. - Rain arrives from south to north starting Friday morning. Northeast wind gusts up to 35 mph by the afternoon. - Scattered showers linger through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Expansive high pressure is centered over Iowa early this morning. Mainly clear skies locally, aside from northeast Ohio where abundant clouds lie along a stationary front that drops south to the Gulf. High pressure and early-morning radar trends favor dry weather today but lingering clouds, especially over northwest Ohio and south of US 24 into Indiana are anticipated. Clouds will be associated with a Tennessee Valley low, which will eventually lift poleward with Hurricane Helene. With clouds in play, the high temperature forecast proves somewhat tricky but should be comparable to Wednesday amid rather neutral temperature advection. Rain from the dual-lows gradually slips into the forecast from south to north on Friday. Expect a mainly dry day in Michiana, but rain should reach the OH-MI line late Friday afternoon. Rain is most wide spread Friday night and early Saturday morning. Thereafter, scattered showers will come and go through the weekend. Northeast wind gusts will be on the rise Friday with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. (10% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph, according to the National Blend.) There is some concern by neighboring offices that as Helene deepens today, there could be a need for increased wind gusts on Friday. This will be monitored over the next 24 hours. By Monday, an expansive ridge over the western two-thirds of the CONUS expands its reach to include the Great Lakes. Thus, a seasonably warm, and perhaps a dry day. The National Blend flipped back to a wet forecast Monday with a few slower model runs showing their hand. A cold front looms Tuesday, but because of a ridge over the Four Corners and a displaced tropical jet, moisture return into this front is poor which limits the overall rain chance. There is disagreement with the magnitude and pace of this front, but falling temperatures through the day, especially near the lake, are plausible Tuesday. Otherwise, cooler area-wide Wednesday with highs struggling to reach 70. Temperatures quickly rebound Thursday and Friday with renewed ridging. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 124 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 An upper low to our south will usher the energy of tropical cyclone Helene up to the area fairly quickly between today and Friday. As its ingredients move up here, expect an increase in cloud cover, but expect it to stay above VFR through this taf period. The area of rain may approach FWA early tomorrow morning, but the expectation is that it remains a county or two south of it until the afternoon, which is just after this taf period. Winds will be the bigger hazard as they will be able to gust to above 20 kts at both sites as early as around 12z Friday. FWA may be able to see 35-40 kts gusts during the afternoon and evening period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for INZ013-015-020- 022>027-032>034. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...Roller