Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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214 FXUS63 KIWX 221828 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 228 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain this afternoon and evening will taper off tonight. - Additional rain arrives Monday night through Tuesday. - Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A surface low centered over southern Lake Michigan combined with lift associated with a weak from and dewpoints rising to around 70 is causing moderate rain showers to move across the area this afternoon. There may be a few embeded thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected due to limited instability and only marginal shear. A cold front will move through later tonight and showers will taper off from west to east, leaving Monday dry and much cooler. High temperatures will only be in the low 70s. However, a shortwave will move up from the southwest on Monday night, bringing more rain for Tuesday, with lingering showers possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, the region will again be stuck between low pressure system and high pressure will build back in. Temperatures will warm, although it will not be as hot as last week, with highs confined mainly to the upper 70s or low 80s. There is some uncertainty though as to whether or not we will be dry. This will depend on the track of a cutoff low to the south and if any shortwaves rotate far enough north to bring convection into the area. The best chances for more rain will probably be next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Continued moist advection ewd of low pressure advancing out IL will yield a gradual deterioration in flight conditions this period. Better forcing timed with greatest moisture flux arises late day with a period of shra expected before post frontal flow develops this evening. This will bring about widespread IFR/stratus overnight extending into Mon am. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...T