Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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519 FXUS64 KJAN 240212 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 912 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Little adjustment was needed this evening to the going forecast with only better agreement with near term (1-3 hr) temperature/dewpoint forecasts tweaked to better mirror observations. A few mostly high clouds reside across the area, with a little better coverage north of I-20. Patchy, shallow fog will be possible tonight, particularly in the Pinebelt south of the thick cloud cover and within deeper humidity. Lows tonight fall to around 70 F for most. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today through Tomorrow Morning... The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than seasonal. Heat indices are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s F this afternoon. Overnight into the early morning hours temperatures are expected to bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s, with RH values in the upper 90% it will feel uncomfortably muggy. Tomorrow through Thursday... Tomorrow afternoon we will have a front drop down into the forecast area from the northwest which will assist in bring precipitation to the state of Mississippi and surrounding region. This front is expected to enter the region late tomorrow morning from the northwest, bringing rain chances (20-35%) along the boundary. This system is expected to slowly amble its way through the region, and stall out through the central portions of the region; as the 500/700mb low becomes cutoff from supporting upper level dynamics. Along areas of highest confluence, expect diurnally enhanced instability to allow for embedded thunderstorms mainly along a NE-SW corridor bisecting the Jackson area of responsibility. Elsewhere widespread light rain showers are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Consequently our gradient will measurably tighten, delivering higher wind speeds (10kt northerlies gusting up to 15kts). Unsurprisingly this front will bring with it attendant lower temperatures, cooling us from the unseasonable highs we`ve had for the last week or so, with highs in the mid 80s F tomorrow trending downwards 3-5F daily throughout the period. Thursday through Monday... The late week and weekend period will be characterized by an unorthodox Fujiwhara-like intercyclonic setup. While the low associated with the aforementioned stalled out frontal boundary lingers in western TN/central AR, another cyclonic feature, tropical in nature, will make its way ashore near the Florida panhandle from the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring moisture to the area by way of the flow around the Tropical System pinwheeling around where it will be further drawn in by the stalled out low in western TN. Altogether this won`t change the surface meteorological situation all to much from the weather earlier in the week, however these highest/heaviest rain chances will be relegated to the eastern periphery of the region. Any shift in the projected centers of these lows could shift the main rain corridor east, out of the CWA; or west, through central MS. Expect rain chances of around 50% throughout the zone for the remainder of the period with possible embedded thunderstorm activity, where isolated areas of higher lift coalesce. Wind speeds look to pick up with this enhanced gradient with southerly winds gusting into the low 20kts and thunderstorms enhancing these speeds with precipitable mixing up into the mid 30kts. Highs should be in the mid 80s F and lows in the low 60S F for the remainder of the week./OAJ/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A few southern sites (mainly HBG, PIB, & HEZ) could see some light patchy fog starting around 09Z Tuesday and will begin to lift starting a little after 12Z Tuesday which could lead to sub-VFR conditions across the Pine Belt. Aside from a few high cumulus clouds, quiet conditions will occur across the entire forecast period with VFR ceilings prevailing through the TAF period. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 91 69 83 / 10 40 60 50 Meridian 69 93 68 83 / 0 20 50 70 Vicksburg 72 89 67 84 / 10 40 40 30 Hattiesburg 70 94 70 89 / 0 10 20 60 Natchez 71 90 68 85 / 10 30 40 40 Greenville 72 86 65 80 / 20 40 20 30 Greenwood 72 88 65 83 / 20 50 30 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ LP/OAJ/CR