923
FXUS64 KJAN 022026
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tonight and Monday: A brief quiet period is expected tonight as a
shortwave disturbance pushes away from the area. Lingering
showers are expected to end into the evening. Patchy fog will be
possible overnight and into early Monday morning but dense fog is
not expected. Overnight temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

The active weather period will pick back up on Monday as
shower/thunderstorm chances return across the CWA. Another
shortwave disturbance from central TX is expected to push eastward
towards our area. As the shortwave approaches, model guidance is
suggesting that a MCV will approach the ArkLaMiss area in the
afternoon and evening hours and help to initiate storms. With
dewpoints in the 70s, decent instability, and lapse rates, some
storms could be strong to severe. A "Marginal" risk for severe
weather was expanded to include areas west of I-55. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees are expected.
/SW/

Monday night through Saturday night: An active weather pattern
will continue through most of the upcoming week with perturbed
westerlies having the greatest influence on our forecast. As has
been the case recently, mid level flow will be more than
sufficient for organized convective systems, and moisture/instability
will occasionally support damaging wind and heavy rainfall
threats.

The biggest challenge will be forecasting the timing of any
systems, and it continues to look like the mid to late week time
frame will be the primary focus for a more significant convective
system to impact the area. With the upper level pattern becoming
more northwesterly and cyclonic, a cold front is expected to
approach the area Wednesday as a stronger perturbation crosses
the forecast area. Cold air aloft combined with a hot and humid
boundary layer will provide a favorable environment for strong to
severe convective wind during peak heating, so we`ll be monitoring
for potential convective systems and ramp up the messaging as
confidence increases. It seems late Wed/Thu/early Fri are when
the global models show the strongest convective signals.

Thereafter, guidance is bouncing around a good bit between
different solutions with some showing drier while others keep it
more warm and humid, and perhaps active in terms of convection
into the weekend. /EC/

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR flight conditions are expected at most TAF sits except for HEZ
which is currently under MVFR flight conditions due to scattered
cloud cover and lingering showers. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for southern and eastern TAF sites and rain chances are
expected to diminish late afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible
early Monday morning, resulting in possible MVFR flight conditions
due to lower visibility. Expect VFR flight conditions to return
after sunrise. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  88  71  90 /   0  30  30  30
Meridian      68  89  70  90 /  10  30  20  40
Vicksburg     70  89  73  90 /   0  30  40  20
Hattiesburg   70  90  72  91 /  10  50  40  30
Natchez       69  88  71  90 /   0  50  40  20
Greenville    72  89  74  90 /   0  30  40  20
Greenwood     70  90  73  90 /   0  20  30  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SW/EC/SW