821
FXUS64 KJAN 270935
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
435 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Today and tonight: Hurricane Helene made landfall last evening over
the Florida Big Bend and is now spinning east central Georgia. With
a slightly more east track than forecast last night, rainfall has
not moved back into our north as anticipated and will likely take
until mid morning to do so. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP
analysis also showed the circulation around a closed low spinning
over north Mississippi. This low has been wrapping around dry air
aloft over our CWA but shows signs of finally bringing some moisture
associated with Helene into northwest Mississippi. The closed low is
progged to shift east northeast today over northern Alabama and
merge with the remnants of Helene tonight over the Tennessee valley.
As it does so, the deep moisture from Helene will be drawn across
the northern half of our CWA with PWATs increasing back above an
inch and a half north of Interstate 20. This will lead to an
increase in rain chances down to Interstate 20 this afternoon that
will be followed by decreasing rain chances from the south this
evening. Dry weather is expected again over our CWA by midnight. The
pressure gradient of 9mb this morning is expected to breezy
conditions across our CWA. This highest wind gusts perhaps of 30-
35mph will be over the northeast portions of our CWA. This pressure
gradient will become weaker during the afternoon as Helene moves up
into Tennessee. The breezy northwest wind, rain chances and
associated cloud cover will likely hold temperatures in the 70s over
the northeast third of the CWA with cooler than normal highs in the
80s to the southwest. With diminishing wind and decreasing cloud
cover tonight, temperatures will be able to cool back down below
seasonal normals by morning. /22/

Wet weather will gradually come to an end as a closed-low/Helene
remnant becomes embedded in the main flow and migrates towards the
northwest over the weekend into Monday. Upper-lvl ridging is
expected to build in over the Four Corners region to start the week.
Dry air and seasonal high/low temperatures will remain over the
area. By Wednesday, a frontal boundary is expected to move towards
the region. Models haven`t determined if precipitation is
accompanying the boundary; however, additional dry air is expected
to settle post frontal passage. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period cntrl and south.
VFR conditions wl prevail in the north until 14Z when MVFR cigs wl
develop over the ne and gradually spread across the HWY 82
corridor TAF sites. A gusty nw wind 20-22kts wl develop across the
area by 14Z and continue through the aftn before subsiding by 23Z.
MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue in the north this evening. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  64  84  63 /  20  20   0   0
Meridian      80  63  83  62 /  20  10   0   0
Vicksburg     83  64  85  63 /  10  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   85  64  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       83  63  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    77  62  80  62 /  60  50   0   0
Greenwood     74  62  79  62 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SW/22