Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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034 FXUS64 KJAN 260542 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1242 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Cooler temperatures are in store for the forecast region tonight with lows bottoming out in the low 60s F. Current observations and METSAT imagery depicts clear skies, and there is not expected to be any change to that throughout the night tonight. Consequently, we`re not looking for any showers tonight as the weak cold front that moved through early this morning through the afternoon has pushed through the area, bringing cooler, drier weather with a northerly fetch. That cold front is expected to become stationary through the Mississippi coast tonight and linger through that area for the foreseeable future, keeping most exciting weather chances at bay for the time being. Quick note about the tropics: Hurricane Helene is not expected to impact the forecast area in any major way. Landfall is projected to be somewhere along the Florida panhandle and continue through Georgia, where most impacts will be felt./OAJ/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tonight through Friday: Tonight the weakening cold front will have progressed through a majority of the area ending the showery activity across our area. Longwave troughing will continue as the closed low begins to shift and reinforce itself in the lower Mississippi River Valley, orienting itself near the Mississippi/ Arkansas/Tennessee boarder. Behind the front drier cooler air will filter into the CWA dropping overnight temps into the low to mid 60s. A few select locations will even bottom out in the upper 50s in the northern portions of the CWA. By tomorrow the closed low will have bolstered itself into the MS/ARK/TN boarder region as the frontal boundary further progresses out of the area. This will serve as a kind of barrier, the frontal boundary will limit moisture in the area as the drier air remains entrenched. Additionally the orientation of the low will mitigate direct impacts of Helene for a majority of the CWA. As the remnants of Helene continue its track north, the associated tropical moisture will become drawn into the closed low across northern MS. The biggest impact will come in the form of the increased sky cover and scattered shower chances (30-60%) north of I-20 beginning Thursday evening through Friday. It is worth noting on Friday that if there aren`t any breaks in the high cloud cover expected and rain is continuous then max temps could struggle to reach what is forecast (low 70s-low 80s) and max temps will likely remain in the range of high 60s to lower 70s./KP/ Saturday through Wednesday...The governing weather pattern will still be controlled by the mid/upper low across the Lower MS and TN River Valleys. The cyclonic flow associated with this feature will continue to support lift to provide some clouds with the higher % coverage over the northern areas. Each day this will wane some and look for less clouds as we start the work week. By Monday, some shortwave ridging will edge into the area as the large scale pattern adjusts to the next main weather feature. At this time, the more favored pattern to evolve is for a W CONUS (Rockies) ridge to build and allow for E CONUS troughing. The result is for a solid cold front to push more southward in the Wed/Thu periods. This would bring cooler/drier air to the area if it plays out. Lots of time to watch trends over the coming days. In summary for the day 4- 7 periods...Sensible weather will be precip free and temps at seasonal values/ranges./CME/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A gusty north wind to 20kts will develop after 16Z and continue through the aftn before subsiding after 0Z Fri. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 62 76 63 82 / 10 30 20 10 Meridian 61 76 62 83 / 20 30 10 10 Vicksburg 61 77 62 83 / 10 20 20 0 Hattiesburg 63 82 64 87 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 60 79 62 84 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 61 71 62 79 / 20 50 40 10 Greenwood 61 71 62 79 / 30 60 40 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/CME/22