847
FXUS64 KJAN 260155 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
855 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Cooler temperatures are in store for the forecast region tonight
with lows bottoming out in the low 60s F. Current observations and
METSAT imagery depicts clear skies, and there is not expected to be
any change to that throughout the night tonight. Consequently, we`re
not looking for any showers tonight as the weak cold front that
moved through early this morning through the afternoon has pushed
through the area, bringing cooler, drier weather with a northerly
fetch. That cold front is expected to become stationary through the
Mississippi coast tonight and linger through that area for the
foreseeable future, keeping most exciting weather chances at bay for
the time being.

Quick note about the tropics: Hurricane Helene is not expected to
impact the forecast area in any major way. Landfall is projected to
be somewhere along the Florida panhandle and continue through
Georgia, where most impacts will be felt./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tonight through Friday: Tonight the weakening cold front will have
progressed through a majority of the area ending the showery
activity across our area. Longwave troughing will continue as the
closed low begins to shift and reinforce itself in the lower
Mississippi River Valley, orienting itself near the Mississippi/
Arkansas/Tennessee boarder. Behind the front drier cooler air will
filter into the CWA dropping overnight temps into the low to mid
60s. A few select locations will even bottom out in the upper 50s in
the northern portions of the CWA.

By tomorrow the closed low will have bolstered itself into the
MS/ARK/TN boarder region as the frontal boundary further progresses
out of the area. This will serve as a kind of barrier, the frontal
boundary will limit moisture in the area as the drier air remains
entrenched. Additionally the orientation of the low will mitigate
direct impacts of Helene for a majority of the CWA. As the remnants
of Helene continue its track north, the associated tropical moisture
will become drawn into the closed low across northern MS. The
biggest impact will come in the form of the increased sky cover and
scattered shower chances (30-60%) north of I-20 beginning Thursday
evening through Friday. It is worth noting on Friday that if there
aren`t any breaks in the high cloud cover expected and rain is
continuous then max temps could struggle to reach what is forecast
(low 70s-low 80s) and max temps will likely remain in the range of
high 60s to lower 70s./KP/

Saturday through Wednesday...The governing weather pattern will
still be controlled by the mid/upper low across the Lower MS and
TN River Valleys. The cyclonic flow associated with this feature
will continue to support lift to provide some clouds with the
higher % coverage over the northern areas. Each day this will wane
some and look for less clouds as we start the work week. By
Monday, some shortwave ridging will edge into the area as the
large scale pattern adjusts to the next main weather feature. At
this time, the more favored pattern to evolve is for a W CONUS
(Rockies) ridge to build and allow for E CONUS troughing. The
result is for a solid cold front to push more southward in the
Wed/Thu periods. This would bring cooler/drier air to the area if
it plays out. Lots of time to watch trends over the coming days.
In summary for the day 4- 7 periods...Sensible weather will be
precip free and temps at seasonal values/ranges./CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, however there is some chance for MVFR ceilings to
impact KMEI, KPIB, and KHBG around 12Z Thursday before lifting
back to VFR range. Winds will be out of the north, and gusts to 20
kts or so will be possible after 15Z Thursday at most sites. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  62  76 /  10   0  10  30
Meridian      63  83  61  76 /  10   0  20  30
Vicksburg     62  83  61  77 /  10   0  10  20
Hattiesburg   67  86  63  82 /  10   0   0  10
Natchez       64  82  60  79 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    60  81  61  71 /   0   0  20  50
Greenwood     61  83  61  71 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/CME/KP