Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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012 FXUS64 KJAN 211521 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1021 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The forecast remains on track thus no major changes were made to the forecast package. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep clear skies and quiet weather in the forecast across area today. Mostly sunny skies will help high temperatures reach into the mid 90s this afternoon./KP/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley from the southwest, as high pressure at the surface remains over the southeast United States. This will continue to result in quiet weather across the forecast area today into tonight. Humid conditions will exist with dew points only mixing into the upper 60s to around 70. Highs will be above normal as they top out in the mid 90s under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will also remain above normal as they range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. /19/ Sunday through Friday: We will be monitoring the tropics, more specifically the northwest Caribbean to Gulf of Mexico region, for potential tropical development during the longer ranges of the forecast. Until a distinct system forms, there will be a considerable amount of uncertainty and ensemble spread in the global models. Confidence is growing however with the synoptic features that could help steer a "potential" system into at least southern portions of the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. Otherwise, the upper level ridge will remain the primary weather influence as we finish up the weekend and begin the new week, and this will keep warm and dry conditions with above normal temperatures over the forecast area. As we go through mid to late week, considerable troughing over the western and central CONUS will impinge on the ridge, and the increased influence from the westerlies will bring greater rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds increase through morning from the southeasterly, and will be sustained at around 5 knots through the course of the day. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 95 70 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 94 70 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 95 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 94 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 93 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 95 71 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP/EC/19