921
FXUS62 KJAX 031809
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
209 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Sea breeze merger convection will focus near and west of the I-75
corridor late this afternoon into the early evening, with drier
conditions toward the Atlantic coast. Main hazard will be locally
heavy rainfall due to slow storm motion. Deeper convection will
drift back toward the Highway 301 corridor through 10 pm as WNW
700-500 mb steering flow influences the storms, but convection
will rapidly weaken with the loss of diurnal instability.
Lingering convective debris clouds will likely limit shallow
ground fog potential across inland zones where rainfall occurs
today, but some patchy early morning fog will be possible toward
daybreak Tuesday especially in the usual suspect areas. Mild low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to lower 70s
toward the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure will be located to the east northeast on Tuesday. This
will yield a flow from the east southeast. Convection will largely
be diurnally driven Tuesday, with this activity spreading west
through the afternoon.

The high will move a little more to the east northeast Wednesday,
allowing the flow over the area to come more from the south.
Convection will be largely diurnally driven, with the sea breeze
interactions aiding in the activity. A secondary max in activity
will be possible late in the afternoon between I95 and I75, as the
east coast sea breeze moves inland to meet the Gulf sea breeze.

Tuesday night and Wednesday night periods are expected to be dry
after midnight.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thursday will be an active convective day, as the combination of
moist southwest flow and sea breeze interactions, combines with
convergence ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest.
This front will pass southeast across the area Thursday night. A
secondary front will move southeast across the area Friday into
Friday night with convective chances mainly driven by convergence
along the boundary.

Long range models largely depict a dry period over the weekend, as a
high pressure ridge builds to the northwest. Can not completely rule
out convection over the weekend, as boundary will linger to the
east, and diurnally driven activity will be possible.

Weak ridging will be over the area into Monday, with low end chances
for convection driven by diurnal instability.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout this period. While
temperatures will still be quite warm Saturday and Sunday following
frontal passage, it will not be as humid with dewpoints generally
falling into the 55 to 65 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Light steering flow has enabled both Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea
breezes to develop and shift slowly inland with VCSH for all
inland terminals and clearing at SSI and SGJ. As the breezes
shift inland, post sea breeze gusts near 15 kts are expected.
Boundary mergers will focus the best chance of TS inland this
afternoon and evening with the best chance of TS near GNV, but
will monitor trends radar for potential TS inclusion and
continued with TEMPO for SHRA at this time. Convection fades will
loss of diurnal instability, with VFR conditions overnight except
at the usual suspect spot VQQ due to shallow ground/fog mist
toward 12z where brief IFR conditions were advertised. Light SSW
land breeze flow at coastal terminals tomorrow morning < 5 kts
will become more SSE through mid-morning Tuesday with VCSH
potential at coastal terminals and GNV 16-18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through
Thursday. A cold front will move southeast across area Thursday
night, with a secondary front moving through Friday night. Weak
high pressure will build to the northwest over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  89  70  93 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  74  83  74  88 /  10  20  20  50
JAX  69  89  70  92 /  10  30  20  50
SGJ  71  85  71  91 /  10  30  20  50
GNV  66  92  68  93 /  20  50  20  60
OCF  68  94  69  94 /  30  50  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$