Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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839 FXUS63 KJKL 021849 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 249 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region today, followed by a decrease in activity for tonight and Monday. - After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10 degrees above normal. - Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will slowly wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening, with weak westerly flow aloft as upper- level ridging builds over the area. Any amount of clearing will result in the formation of widespread patchy to areas of fog, some of which could be dense in the typically fog-prone sheltered valley locations. With high humidity expected, lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Despite upper-level ridging overhead Monday, a weak mid-level disturbance will combine with marginal instability to produce isolated to widely scattered rain showers and possibly a few afternoon thunderstorms, with the highest likelihood of seeing storms over the eastern Kentucky mountains bordering Virginia. With sun breaks in the afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s at most locations. Upper-level ridge axis moves just east over the Appalachians and Upper Ohio River Valley Monday night, with increasing southerly flow ahead of the next disturbance. However, it appears any precipitation chances will arrive after the short-term period ends. Nevertheless, expect another night of patchy to widespread fog in the valleys, with lows falling into the upper 50s for most valley locations and lower to mid 60s elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 415 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024 The models are in general agreement with an amplified and more blocky pattern to be the rule over the CONUS through next week. Detail differences become larger after Thursday, lending to lower forecast confidence. As such, did not deviate much from the blended guidance regarding PoPs. Monday night into early Tuesday morning, a 500 mb ridge axis will be aligned from Quebec through the eastern Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley, as well as the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure will be positioned over New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, stronger short wave energy will be moving east from the northern/central Rockies to the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. This will take on more of a negative tilt through Wednesday morning, as it swings over Midwest region and into the Great Lakes and portions of the Ohio Valley, with a surface cold front propelling southeastward. As mentioned previously, models then diverge thereafter, with lower 500 mb heights and some degree of cyclonic flow being maintained over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Again, there is quite a bit of spread in the model guidance, so confidence in the forecast is low. As for sensible weather, dry and warmer conditions will start out over eastern Kentucky. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of next week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. PoPs have trended slower for Tuesday, with low chances (20-30%) moving in from the west in the afternoon, as moisture gradually increases. PoPs look to peak on Wednesday, with likely to categorical chances (70-80%), with the approach of the surface cold front, as well as the arrival of better mid and upper level support. Higher PoPs (60-70%) will linger into Wednesday night, with chance PoPs (40-60%) for Thursday. Highs will average in the low to mid 80s for the middle of next week, before cooling off to the upper 70s to lower 80s for Friday and Saturday, Lows will cool from the low to mid 60s, to the mid and upper 50s. There will likely be a lull in the PoPs Friday and Saturday; however, given the overall agreement of some degree of cyclonic flow, will maintain some low chance (20-30%) and mainly diurnally driven PoPs for this period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024 An area of showers is moving across the forecast area producing MVFR/IFR cigs currently. These showers will continue to move east and out of the area over the next couple of hours. However, with partial clearing will come increased destabilization and the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. KSME and KLOZ are the mostly likely areas to see thunderstorms, but any TAF site will be susceptible to TSRA with brief/temporary reductions to IFR or lower conditions. What`s left of showers and thunderstorms are expected to die out during the evening, and clouds should begin to decrease. This will set us up for fog and low clouds developing late tonight, resulting in IFR or worse conditions for most locations. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...CMC