380
FXUS63 KJKL 021743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will bring
  showers and thunderstorms to the region today, followed by a
  decrease in activity for tonight and Monday.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will again
  increase through mid week, with temperatures trending 5-10
  degrees above normal.

- Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages by late in
  the week, with at least small rain chances lingering at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

The forecast is on track. Made minor edits to 1-hour PoPs using a
blend of the 1-hr NBM and 1-hr CONShort. Otherwise, blended in
current observations with the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Forecast is on track. Another round of showers is progressing into
the area from the west and should continue eastward today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 458 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

A weak mid/upper level trough is approaching from the west early
this morning, while low level flow transports mild and moist air
northward on isentropic lift. The combination is bringing showers.
The concentration of showers affecting the area overnight and
early this morning is expected to shift to the east early today,
but an additional round is forecast to develop under the
approaching trough. As heating occurs, we will also have a
potential for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

As the trough departs to the east and stabilization occurs
tonight, showers and thunderstorms will die out. Clouds will also
decrease. The extent of clearing is uncertain, but appreciable
breaks in the clouds will likely result in fog development due to
high humidity to start the night, light winds, and no change in
air mass.

Fog will dissipate after sunrise on Monday. Diurnal and
differential heating could be enough to bring a few showers or
thunderstorms over southeast KY on Monday, but less coverage is
expected due to ridging aloft building in from the west with much
drier air aloft inhibiting development.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

The models are in general agreement with an amplified and more
blocky pattern to be the rule over the CONUS through next week.
Detail differences become larger after Thursday, lending to lower
forecast confidence. As such, did not deviate much from the
blended guidance regarding PoPs. Monday night into early Tuesday
morning, a 500 mb ridge axis will be aligned from Quebec through
the eastern Great Lakes, Upper Ohio Valley, as well as the
Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure will be positioned
over New England and the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, stronger
short wave energy will be moving east from the northern/central
Rockies to the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. This will take
on more of a negative tilt through Wednesday morning, as it
swings over Midwest region and into the Great Lakes and portions
of the Ohio Valley, with a surface cold front propelling
southeastward. As mentioned previously, models then diverge
thereafter, with lower 500 mb heights and some degree of cyclonic
flow being maintained over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Again,
there is quite a bit of spread in the model guidance, so
confidence in the forecast is low.

As for sensible weather, dry and warmer conditions will start out
over eastern Kentucky. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of next
week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. PoPs have trended slower
for Tuesday, with low chances (20-30%) moving in from the west in
the afternoon, as moisture gradually increases. PoPs look to peak
on Wednesday, with likely to categorical chances (70-80%), with
the approach of the surface cold front, as well as the arrival of
better mid and upper level support. Higher PoPs (60-70%) will
linger into Wednesday night, with chance PoPs (40-60%) for
Thursday. Highs will average in the low to mid 80s for the middle
of next week, before cooling off to the upper 70s to lower 80s for
Friday and Saturday, Lows will cool from the low to mid 60s, to
the mid and upper 50s. There will likely be a lull in the PoPs
Friday and Saturday; however, given the overall agreement of some
degree of cyclonic flow, will maintain some low chance (20-30%)
and mainly diurnally driven PoPs for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2024

An area of showers is moving across the forecast area producing
MVFR/IFR cigs currently. These showers will continue to move east
and out of the area over the next couple of hours. However, with
partial clearing will come increased destabilization and the
development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. KSME
and KLOZ are the mostly likely areas to see thunderstorms, but any
TAF site will be susceptible to TSRA with brief/temporary
reductions to IFR or lower conditions. What`s left of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to die out during the evening, and
clouds should begin to decrease. This will set us up for fog and
low clouds developing late tonight, resulting in IFR or worse
conditions for most locations.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC