Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
834 FXUS62 KKEY 270440 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1240 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1156 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Major Hurricane Helene is still the main topic tonight as we are still feeling the effects of the storm. Surface observations from along the island chain have reflected surface wind gusts roughly between 25 to 35 mph over the past few hours, reflecting the tiniest downward trend from earlier in the day. This seemingly minuscule decrease indicates that the storm is slowly losing its influence over the Keys. This isnt surprising as Helene has just made its landfall approximately 10 miles west southwest of Perry, Florida, and winds will become lighter as it tracks farther away to the north. Another indicator of the strong winds can be seen on our KBYX radar as an area of sea spray is showing up on the 0.5 degree reflectivity scan. There have been a few instances of light rainfall reported from the Key West International Airport, but a look at the lack of returns on the radar showed that this was sea spray making it to the ASOS equipment. Radar is detecting actual precipitation too, and a line of showers is moving northeastward across our western waters. This line may bring a couple of sprinkles to the Lower Keys if it can hold itself together. Beyond that, no appreciable rainfall is expected tonight. Outside of the very short term forecast period, no changes or updates are needed to the forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1156 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Major Hurricane Helene will continue to produce tropical storm force breezes over the next several hours, and will start to diminish over the morning. Breezes will continue to slacken through the weekend as surface high pressure takes over. Breezes will collapse this weekend as surface high pressure takes over before turning southeasterly and increasing just a bit over the start of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Despite low coverage, sporadic squalls will be possible across the island chain throughout tonight. These will require short term amendments for winds in excess of 45 to 50 knots and reduction in VIS and CIGS. Winds by themselves are causing trouble due to south to southwest wind direction, making for perilous crosswinds. Sustained winds have dwindled to near 25 knots, and gusts are reaching the mid to upper 30s (higher winds are at EYW). Winds will continue to come down as Hurricane Helene accelerates to the north. There is some uncertainty in terms of rainfall for tomorrow, so have kept VCSH through the entire TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 82 88 83 / 80 60 80 60 Marathon 87 82 89 82 / 80 60 80 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078. Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ076>078. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Coordinator/Hazards..11 Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....DR Social Media.........DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest