Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
746 FXUS63 KLBF 231856 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers with a weak cold front tonight, followed by temperatures at or below normal tomorrow. - Dry with a rapid warm up midweek as temperatures rise above normal, then remaining dry and seasonably warm into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Skies are generally over central and western Nebraska this afternoon but clouds upstream are approaching from the northwest with an upper trof digging down into the High Plains evident in water vapor imagery. As this trof moves through the region tonight it will push a weak cold front across the area from the northwest to southeast. Mid level FGEN forcing and deformation with the front will provide adequate lift, but while ensemble guidance shows a surge of mid/upper level moisture accompanying the front low level moisture is very lacking and instability is best defines as non- zero. Given the lack of instability and low level moisture anticipate any showers accompanying the front will be sparse and produce little in the way of meaningful precipitation, though may be accompanied by some brief breezy conditions, before the front moves off to our southeast by daybreak Tuesday morning. Lows tonight range from the middle 40s northwest to lower 50s further to the southeast. High pressure surface and aloft then build over Nebraska with quiet and dry conditions expected thorugh tomorrow. After diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer there will be a bit of a breeze tomorrow afternoon as temperatures rise into the 70s, followed by lows Tuesday night down into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Signals for high impact weather are absent across the High Plains for the next several days, with a stretch of warm and dry fall weather expected across the region. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in depicting the upper trof digging down through the High Plains tonight continuing to amplify and evolve into a deep closed low that settles over the lower Mississippi valley by the middle of the week where it will linger for several days, eventually with potential interaction with a tropical system moving out of the Gulf and into the southeastern US. The positioning of the low off to our southeast will allow central and western Nebraska to stay under the influence of warm and dry ridging with the main storm track staying well up into Canada. Ensemble guidance indicates the earliest moisture may attempt to rotate around the low and try to push into the region from the east will be late this weekend, though ensemble QPF plumes remain well clustered near zero and probabilistic QPF guidance shows little more than a couple hundreths of precipitation all the way to the 90th percentile. All in all high confidence in dry conditions into the weekend, though will still have to see exactly how tropical development and potential interactions unfold in the Gulf/southeastern US. Temperatures early in the period will be quite warm as readings aloft push above the 90th percentile especially across northwest Nebraska where highs by Thursday will range from the lower 90s near the Pine Ridge to around 80 further to the southeast across south central Nebraska. Readings then cool a bit but remain seasonably warm through the weekend with highs generally in the lower 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Given the expectation for a prolonged period of warm and dry weather, will be keeping close tabs on fire weather conditions especially Thursday as gusts may approach 25 to 30mph during the afternoon from the sandhills into the northern panhandle. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A cold front will make it`s way across the area tonight. Little if any precipitation is expected, but there will be a mid-level overcast cloud deck that crosses the area. Winds will shift to the north-northwest as the front passes. Gusts around 20 kts are expected during the day Tuesday. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...Taylor