Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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380 FXUS64 KLCH 231742 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Patchy ground fog has once again developed across the region this morning. Most of this is likely occurring just at or below visibility sensor height as multiple sensors have very briefly reported reduced visibilities. Expect this fog to be short lived after sunrise and gone no later than 14Z. The region remains under a broad ridge aloft that extends across nearly the entire gulf coast. This, combined with very dry air above about 750 mb should keep nearly all convection at bay. Not ruling out the possibility of a couple of isolated showers similar to what was seen yesterday afternoon, but consensus PoPs are generally under 20%. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient around high pressure centered over GA will keep southerly winds generally under 5 MPH. Guidance is in good agreement on the ridge along the gulf coast flattening out over the northern gulf before being shunted off to the East by an eastward advancing trof over the southern plains. Increasing moisture ahead of this trof will initialize scattered convection across the region Tuesday afternoon. A few of these will have the potential to continue into the night with activity increasing again Wednesday as a second trof, digging quickly south out of Canada, pushes a frontal boundary through the area. The pattern suggests something of a broken squall line will develop along the frontal boundary with precip coming to an end in it`s wake as a relatively cooler, drier airmass filters into the region late Wednesday. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The extended period forecast will be predicated on the evolution of a possible tropical cyclone in the Northwest Caribbean or Eastern Gulf of Mexico which NHC presently gives a high probability of development. Considering no actual circulation center, forecast guidance has been in surprisingly good agreement on an eventual track through the eastern Gulf of Mexico before becoming absorbed by the upper low responsible for Wednesday`s FROPA. Based on this or a materially similar track, the biggest impact to the region would be breezy northerly flow and possible low water conditions along the coast. The interaction of potential tropical remnants with an upper level low over the southern plains could result in wraparound tropical moisture that increase PoPs Friday through the weekend, but this is a very low confidence forecast given a likely complex interaction. Therefore, only carrying isolated PoPs, per NBM, to account for the large uncertainty. Regardless, as long as the region remains west of the circulation center, relatively cooler temperatures will continue through early next week. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Widely isolated showers about the area this afternoon, with minimal impacts to the terminals expected. With this activity being diurnally driven, expect it to taper going into the evening, with little to no activity likely tonight. Light and patchy fog will again be possible from the overnight hours until shortly after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light with a general onshore component today through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean. This disturbance has a 70% chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. Winds and seas late Wednesday through the end of the week will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of this disturbance, but are likely to increase through the latter half of the week. Should a strong tropical cyclone develop and transit the eastern gulf, strong offshore flow would likely result in low water conditions Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 90 68 85 / 0 40 30 40 LCH 74 90 72 87 / 0 30 20 40 LFT 74 91 73 90 / 0 20 10 40 BPT 74 92 72 90 / 10 40 30 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87