Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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190 FXUS64 KLCH 211050 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 550 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A ridge aloft remains centered over South Texas this morning while stretching into the northern gulf coast and the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface high pressure stretches from the local region into the southeast states. This set up has been in place for the past few days and has produced light winds with minimal convection. Not much change is anticipated today. Temperatures will run several degrees above climo averages for the date this afternoon with dry conditions expected. Into Sunday, both the ridge aloft and at the surface will gradually shift east. The ridge aloft will continue to suppress convection while the pressure gradient remains weak keeping winds light. Finally by Monday minimal rain chances return to the area. A short wave will move into the plains eroding the ridge aloft over TX and LA. Low pressure will also move across the Great Lakes slightly increasing the south flow locally. The modest increase in cloud cover and wind will allow high temperatures to decrease a few degrees, but overall conditions will remain summery. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A pleasant welcome to the extended forecast will be the very subtle down trend in diurnal highs throughout the upcoming work week into the low to mid 80s. Tuesday, high pressure ridging wraps along the Eastern Seaboard while extending SW across the northern Gulf. Upstream to the west, a positively tilted shortwave trof will usher a front across the Southern Plains which will begin to stall across central Louisiana through Wednesday morning across SETX and SWLA. The front will increase chances for precip across the area, but only marginally as isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. Behind the front, Wednesday evening, lies a large continental mass of high pressure that will occupy the Plains and Ohio Valley through the remainder of the forecast period. Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, low pressure troughing associated with the Central American Gyre will start to deepen northward. There are favorable signals for tropical development beyond Wednesday, however, guidance contains a large spread over potential system that has yet to even form. Once observable signals of organization are ingested by model guidance early next week, further changes to the forecast will occur, if necessary, as confidence increases in the pattern evolution. However, regardless of tropical development which will be monitored by the National Hurricane Center, the overall pattern trends the Gulf area of low pressure abutting modest high pressure ridging across the Southern Plains / Gulf Coast. Thus, rainfall signals persist Thursday and Friday as well. Additionally, more mild and seasonable diurnal high temperatures will take place while surface winds gain stronger northeasterly components toward the end of the work week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Patchy fog will affect the terminals this morning with lower vis at times. The fog will quickly burn off after sunrise with VFR conditions anticipated through day and into early Sunday. Patchy fog may once again develop around sunrise Sunday. Winds will be light. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure offshore will continue the trend of hot, dry and calm conditions. Seas are below 2 feet and will stay there through the weekend. In addition winds will be light and variable. The pattern will start to change around midweek as a front moves offshore, increasing winds. In the Gulf the NHC has a 60% region for development of a tropical cyclone. There is little consistency between individual models or model run-to-run consistency. It will be important to keep a close eye on the forecast for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 70 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 94 74 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 95 74 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 94 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05