346
FXUS64 KLCH 262050
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
350 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Very nice weather ongoing across the area this afternoon as drier
air continues to spread southward in the wake of an overnight
cold front. Northerly winds have been somewhat gusty amid a
tightening pressure gradient between high pressure stretching from
the Great Lakes southwest to Texas and what is now Major Hurricane
Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Under sunny to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower
to middle 80s across the region. Dewpoints have fallen into the
upper 50s to lower 60s (between 10 and 20 degrees lower than this
time yesterday), yielding relative humidity values generally
between 35 and 45 percent.

The primary message for the upcoming forecast period will be the
continuation of dry and seasonable conditions for the next
several days. Strong and gusty offshore winds over the coastal
waters will gradually subside by Friday. Meanwhile, much bigger
weather concerns loom for portions of FL and the SE US as
Hurricane Helene quickly moves in a general northward direction over
the eastern Gulf. The storm is expected to intensify further
before making landfall near the Big Bend Region of FL sometime
this evening.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The region will remain under the influence of drier air tonight
into Friday, with northerly flow reinforced along the western
flank of Helene as it moves across the FL Big Bend later this
evening. Winds will shift more northwest then west through Friday
morning as the system quickly lifts inland. The remnants of Helene
are then expected to arc northwest toward the mid MS Valley
during the day Friday, and this could bring a slight increase in
midlevel clouds across central and western LA as moisture wraps
around the SW side of the circulation. These clouds will
eventually erode by Friday night as dry air mixes back over the
region while the remnant low meanders near the confluence of the
OH/MS river basins.

Temperatures through the short term period will remain close to
seasonal values, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Overnight
lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with
temperatures falling into the lower 60s across much of the area.
Friday night low temps are expected to be in the low to middle
60s, which is right in line with late September normals.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The large low will slowly drift over the OH Valley through the
weekend, finally lifting northeastward early next week. This will
allow for the passage of a weak cold front by midweek, with
reinforcing high pressure building into the region by Wednesday
and Thursday. Aloft, ridging is expected to build into the region
from the west, with dry air and capping keeping rain chances
limited through the long term.

No significant change in temperatures is anticipated over the
weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will climb
slightly, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90, and lows into
the middle to upper 60s.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR/SKC is expected to prevail through the period. NE-N winds
10-15 kt with occasional gusts between 20-25 kt can be expected
today, with winds diminishing and gradually backing to the NW
tonight.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Strong gradient winds between high pressure across the central US
and Major Hurricane Helene will maintain strong and gusty winds
over the coastal waters tonight. Winds will gradually taper off
through Friday morning, shifting more westerly as Helene quickly moves
inland over the southeast US. A light to moderate westerly flow
will continue through the weekend.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  84  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  63  86  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  63  87  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  63  89  65  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24