Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
151 FXUS65 KLKN 270906 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 206 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend continues today across the forecast area as high pressure builds. Isolated showers this afternoon will be possible over the Ruby Mountains. A trough of low pressure will bring chances of thunderstorms across northeastern Nevada on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Afternoon highs are forecast to moderate Wednesday and Thursday, only to rebound over the weekend as high pressure begins to nudge its way towards the Intermountain West. && .SHORT TERM... Afternoon highs continue to trend up across the forecast area as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the Intermountain West. NBM guidance today shows afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Hi res model guidance is depicting isolated showers forming over the Ruby Mountains later this afternoon. Showers are expected to end by late in the evening on Monday as daytime heating ends. The warming trend is forecast to continue on Tuesday, where blended model guidance is showing afternoon highs rise a few more degrees. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s are conceivable. A trough of low pressure from the Pacific Northwest will also introduce a chance of thunderstorms across Northern Nevada as lift and instability enter the district. HREF probabilities show about a 20-30% chance of thunder across northern Elko County Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm potential is forecast to diminish overnight. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday A trough approaches from the Pacific Northwest, bringing light rain showers with isolated thunderstorms across far northeastern Nevada Wednesday. Dry conditions for the rest of the CWA with breezy west to northwesterly winds developing by midweek. As the trough progresses eastward, a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. High temperatures gradually warm in the upper 70s into the mid 80s by next weekend under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Mostly sunny this morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening hours, though all terminals are expected to remain dry. Clearing late tonight. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures are forecast to continue warming the next couple of days. Flows on many small creeks and streams are expected to rise, possibly into action stage for some, such as Lamoille Creek. The lower Humboldt continues to run strong with Battle Mountain currently in action stage and Comus forecast to enter action stage later this afternoon. Wildhorse Reservoir resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Humboldt River at Battle Mountain remains in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 95/90/96