Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
806 FXUS65 KLKN 230850 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 150 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair weather continues into the work week across the Silver State. Ridging and a high pressure center building into the west coast keep a lid on shower and thunderstorm activity as the atmosphere remains very stable and dry. Temperatures will slowly climb by a degree or two each day into the upper 80s by mid week. && .SHORT TERM...The ridge continues to build into the SW CONUS on Monday. A dome of high pressure building over the Pacific Ocean under a well amplified ridge pattern will come onshore Monday evening over the Pacific NW. This places the region in the southeastern flank of the high creating ENE flow over the area. By Tuesday the HPC will pass through the northern portions of the state before pushing to the east and creating stronger southerly flow across Nevada. The synoptic setup is not favorable for moisture availability over the CWA so convective activity is not expected through Wednesday morning. Daytime highs on Monday in the upper 70s will continue to increase for 2-3 degrees each day. Overnight lows along ridge tops in the low 30s will create areas of frost, though valleys with lows in the low 40s should avoid freezing through Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday. Forecast area resides under southwesterly flow Wednesday morning as high pressure is displaced east while a progressive upper trof and attendant cold front move into the PacNW. Southwesterly breezes will be across the Great Basin Wednesday afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 mph expected, slightly stronger for some locales. Otherwise weather remains dry under mostly sunny and clear skies. Look for daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s with overnight lows mostly in the 40s. Trof continues east Thursday with the cold front skirting northern Nevada. Upper flow transitions to a weak zonal regime by the afternoon and evening hours. No significant change in sensible weather anticipated with dry conditions prevailing and winds becoming generally light Thursday, remaining so thru the latter half of the week. Temperatures also cool slightly Thursday but remain a few degrees warmer than average thru at least Saturday. Numerical solutions continue to indicate another upper trof to move into the PacNW from the west in the Sunday time frame. Slight variation in the timing of the trof with larger discrepancy in its strength lead to high uncertainty in the forecast Sunday and Monday. Currently opting to maintain a dry solution in the forecast with afternoon breezes likely Sunday and/or Monday afternoons. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours with generally light winds expected. && .FIRE WEATHER...Under building high pressure to start the week, the area will continue to remain warm and dry through the Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually increase 2 to 3 degrees each day into the upper 80s by Wednesday. The high pressure center will pass through the area Tuesday keeping winds calm despite low relative humidity values in the dry, stable environment. On Wednesday however, in the western flank of strong high pressure, southerly winds will increase especially in northern Nevada to near critical fire weather speeds. Combined with low relative humidity values in the afternoon elevated fire weather conditions may be a concern Wednesday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity is not anticipated through Wednesday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 99/92/92/99