868
FXUS66 KLOX 110935
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
235 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/235 AM.

Moderate to damaging coastal flooding will likely continue
through at least Tuesday. Periods of light to moderate rain and a
low chance of thunderstorms will persist through Monday with below
normal temperatures. Beginning Tuesday and continuing through the
end of the week, weak to moderate offshore flow will bring warm
and dry conditions to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...11/235 AM.

Overall, 00Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. For the public side of things, two main concerns will
be precipitation and winds.

With respect to rainfall, no significant changes to the forecast
have been made. Currently, Rachel is south-southeast of LA County
and is moving quickly to the north-northeast. As expected,
moisture associated with Rachel is generating widespread light to
moderate showers across eastern LA county this morning with widely
scattered light showers elsewhere. By this afternoon, Rachel, and
the bulk of its moisture, will be well northeast of the area.
Although Rachel will be moving out of the picture, there will
still be plenty of residual moisture hanging around this afternoon
and tonight, before the moisture starts diminishing noticeably
during the day on Monday. A sharp, upper level trough will move
across the area this afternoon through Monday. Given the expected
residual moisture, this trough will generate the threat of showers
just about anywhere trough Monday night. By Tuesday, the trough
will be east of the area as its parent upper low drops into the
Great Basin.

Based on current observations and QPF forecasts, no major changes
have been made to the expected precipitation totals. Through
Monday night, LA County is expected to have widespread totals in
the 0.25-1.00 inch range with amounts up to 2.00 inches possible
across the San Gabriel Mountains. Elsewhere, rainfall totals will
be noticeably lower, with amounts of 0.25 inches or less likely.
With the upper level trough this afternoon through Monday, there
will also continue to be a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms. Rainfall
rates are expected to generally remain below 0.25 inches/hour.
However, over the San Gabriel Mountains and associated with any
thunderstorms, local rates around 0.50 inches/hour will be
possible and could generate some minor hydrologic issues.

As for winds, rather gusty southwesterly winds are expected to
develop across the mountains and deserts later this morning and
continue through early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 35-50 MPH
are likely with even local gusts around 60 MPH (especially across
the desert foothills). So, current WIND ADVISORIES will remain in
effect for the LA Mountains and Antelope Valley through tonight.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...11/235 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to exhibit good synoptic
agreement through the period. At upper levels, ridge will build
over the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will settle
over the Great Basin.

Forecast-wise, the above scenario will bring warm and dry
conditions to the area. The combination of the upper level ridge
and offshore surface gradients will bring a noticeable warming
trend for all areas through Saturday. In fact by Friday and
Saturday, moderate to locally major Heat Risk will be possible
across the coastal plain and coastal valleys.

As for winds, all models indicate increasing offshore surface
pressure gradients through the period. At the same time, models
indicate some decent upper level wind support (925/850 mb)
developing. So, there is increasing confidence in weak to moderate
Santa Ana winds developing. At this time, the peak gradients and
upper level wind support look to occur on Friday. Looking at the
ensemble mean gusts, gusts around 40 MPH are indicated Friday
morning at Camarillo and Newhall. So, there is a decent chance of
moderate Santa Ana winds developing across Ventura/LA counties by
Friday and Saturday. So, would not be surprised to see wind
advisories issued for the Santa Ana wind corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0935Z.

At 0930Z at KLAX, there was neither a marine layer nor a marine
inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12Z TAF package. Moisture
streaming northward from Tropical Storm Rachel will bring the
threat of showers to all sites south of Point Conception through
this morning. For this afternoon through tonight, there will be a
threat of showers at all sites. Through the TAF period, there will
be 30-40% chance of MVFR CIGs at all sites. Additionally, there
is a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms through the period.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 40% chance of
MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period. No significant easterly
winds are expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 40% chance of
MVFR CIGs anytime during the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...11/235 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Monday, high confidence in a combination
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. Additionally,
there is a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds this morning. On
Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds, especially
around Point Conception. For Wednesday through Thursday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through this evening, high
confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For
Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels. For Tuesday through Thursday, there is a 30-50% chance of
SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through this evening, high
confidence in SCA level winds. For Monday through Wednesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most
area, but the only exception is the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel where there is a 50% chance of SCA level winds
Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Thursday, there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura south to Santa
Monica.

Periods of light to moderate showers are likely through Monday
with the highest confidence today. There is a 10% chance of
thunderstorms during the same time frame. While showers or
thunderstorms are possible anywhere, the highest chances exist
south of Point Conception.

Long period swell from the west and the south are affecting the
coastal waters, and can create a confused sea state. This can
make boating more challenging and dangerous, especially for small
vessels.

&&

.BEACHES...11/235 AM.

A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the beaches of Los
Angeles County (including Long Beach, the Malibu Coast and
Catalina Island) through 3 PM today. DAMAGING sea-water coastal
flooding is likely today, especially near the morning high tide
where anticipated tide levels are expected to be around 8 feet.
The most likely areas for DAMAGING coastal flooding this morning
will be vulnerable south-facing beaches due to the expected
combination of very high tides around 8 feet (including additive
effect of low barometric pressure and onshore winds gusting to 15
to 25 mph), high surf of 5 to 8 feet, and light to moderate
rainfall. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THE EXPECTED COASTAL
FLOODING IMPACTS THIS MORNING FOR VULNERABLE SOUTH FACING BEACHES
OF LA COUNTY COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SEASON, INCLUDING THOSE SEEN WITH Marie.

For all other beaches and harbors of LA county, minor to
moderate sea-water flooding will likely impact beaches and
walkways, especially with the morning high tide which could cause
local damage to the most vulnerable locations such as Venice and
Long Beach. For all beach areas, significant erosion is expected.
There is an increased risk of ocean drowning. Dangerous and life-
threatening rip currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea.
Large breaking waves can cause injury, wash people off beaches
and rocks, and capsize small boats near shore. The projected high
tides of around 8 feet for this morning would approach or exceed
recent record tide levels for LA county. Large secondary high
tides are also expected each evening.

For beaches from Ventura County northward, minor to moderate
coastal flooding will be likely near times of high tide as well as
periods of elevated to high surf and strong rip currents.
In addition to the Coastal Flood Advisory for Ventura County,
Coastal Flood Advisories have been added for the Central Coast
and southern Santa Barbara coast. For Ventura county, there is the
possibility of localized damage across low-lying areas during the
morning high tide, along with the threat of significant sea spray
and and water on sections of PCH between Point Mugu and Sycamore
Cove.

A very complex series of swells from the south, west, and
northwest will impact our coastlines into at least early next
week. Energy from Tropical Storm Rachel, southern hemisphere
swells, northwest swells, and local wind swells will add up with
each other to produce the aforementioned coastal impacts. Please
continue to monitor the forecast.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to
      2 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 6 AM PDT early this
      morning for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect from 6 AM this morning to 10
      PM PDT Monday for zones 340-346-349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM
      PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM
      PDT this evening for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Monday for zones
      378>383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 645-650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...Gomberg/Ciliberti/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RAT/RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox