997
FXUS64 KLUB 301916
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
216 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

This morning`s convection has thrown a small monkey wrench into
today`s severe forecast. The outflow boundary has pushed much
further south than expected and, as of 18Z, stretched from Tatum,
New Mexico to near Seminole to Snyder. This boundary has stabilized
the airmass across most of the FA to some degree by significantly
lowering surface temps. This also shifts the main tornado threat
further south than originally expected. Storms are expected to
develop by 3-4 PM CDT across eastern New Mexico and push into the FA
by 4-5 PM CDT. Though forecasted MUCAPE has been lowered from 2000-
4500 to 2000-3500 J/kg, it will still be plenty enough instability
for storms to be sustained and, combined with bulk shear of near 50
knots, allow storms to be strong to severe. Baseball size hail and
wind gusts up to 70 mph are still the expected threats, but a gust
to 80 mph cannot be ruled out. Discrete storms should form into an
MCS as they move to the edge of the Caprock. As PWATs will be
near/over 2 inches and many areas across the Rolling Plains has
already received heavy rainfall, there will be a risk for flash
flooding. A Flood Watch has been issued from 00Z-09Z tonight for our
eastern two rows of counties. As for the tornado risk, as mentioned
previously, it will be along the remnant gust front and mostly to
our south. Storms should exit our eastern zones before 12Z. A cold
front will push into the region by tomorrow morning with the passage
of the upper shortwave that is aiding with developing today`s
storms. This should help to keep highs in the 70s and 80s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

An unsettled semi-zonal flow remains in place through the weekend
with moist southerlies in the low levels pushing PWATs to 1 inch or
greater over much of the forecast area. Similar to recent nights,
Friday night has potential once again for storms initially in
northeast New Mexico to make headway southeast through the southern
TX Panhandle along a theta-e gradient. PoPs remain greatest across
our northern zones for this nocturnal round of precip with a gradual
downturn Saturday morning. Shortwave ridging for much of the day on
Saturday along with a dryline anchored well to our west looks to
keep much of the region on the quiet side during the daytime. By
late day, increased ascent from both an approaching shortwave trough
and upslope flow along the dryline in eastern NM should easily spur
storm development that leads to another efficient nocturnal rain
event, perhaps more significant than prior nights given PWATs nearly
150% of normal. Will disregard the NAM`s dry scenario as it is a
southerly outlier (for now) with the track of the shortwave trough.
Severe prospects would also be in play given sizable MLCAPEs and
enough deep layer shear for both supercells and MCSs.

For Sunday, the dryline mixes out of NM and settles somewhere on the
Caprock underneath flat westerly flow. The dryline by itself may be
able to eke out some storms by peak heating in lieu of weaker
background forcing, so will keep NBM`s PoPs intact which fit well
with global ensemble means. Deeper westerly flow by Monday brings an
abrupt halt to our rain chances as the dryline shifts off the
Caprock and contends with a strengthening EML. Although our forecast
remains dry, GFS soundings at CDS show convective temps within reach
which may squeak out a lone storm. This overall dire theme takes a
turn for the worse by Tuesday as thicknesses jump in even drier
westerly flow resulting in triple digit highs for many locales.
Relief from the heat is on the way as soon as Wednesday thanks to a
vigorous cyclone progged to track over the northern plains. The
ECMWF is notably sharper and deeper with this trough which lends
itself to even cooler temps for us, but will stick with the modest
cooling of the NBM until ensemble spreads lessen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the afternoon, with
a line of thunderstorms developing west of LBB to PVW. These
storms will likely be severe with large hail and wind gusts
exceeding 50 knots. Around sunrise on Friday a stratus deck may
move into the area with a modest low-level jet, bringing a risk
for temporary IFR conditions at all sites.

Watson/Sorensen/Oz/Fenske

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26