982
FXUS64 KLZK 041938
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
238 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

An MCV split off from the MCS over Oklahoma this morning and spun
into central AR. Short term models were keying on convection
developing in its wake this afternoon and bringing stronger storms
toward central AR around 00Z.

Some very weak convection is now developing in narrow bands behind
it...but CAPE appears limited with a bit of a cap in place.
Furthermore, HRRR runs now flipping and showing almost no convection
this afternoon. I think it would be prudent to continue with some
lower rain chances this afternoon thru early this evening...but my
overall confidence in the forecast tonight is rather low.

This morning models were showing another MCS forming over OK
overnight, moving into Arkansas by morning in a somewhat repeat
performance. Main difference is that models were trending toward
considerably heavier rainfall overnight tonight versus last night.

Short term model runs during the day were trying to develop this MCS
further north, even into NW Arkansas. Latest run at publication was
trending back south again. For the time being, I believe the best
course of action is to put highest POPs west and northwest
overnight, and trend the POPs spatially in the early morning hours
to the southeast across AR.

My primary concern with all of this isn`t the POPs, but rather the
QPF forecast. At present, the highest QPF values appear to be over
SE OK and SW AR. After consulting with neighboring offices, the
decision was made to issue a flood watch for flash flooding.
However, some adjustments may need to be made to this overnight
after we have a better idea of where the MCS will develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Dry conditions are expected across the state at the start of the
period but the break in rain chances isn`t expected to last very
long. By the weekend, sfc ridging should shift east of the area
providing a return of S-SW flow ahead of a cold front expected to
sink south into the state.

The expanding H500 ridge across the West is expected to begin to
break down this weekend as a series of intense cyclones over central
Canada work their way south toward the Great Lakes. This will lead
to somewhere between a zonal and NW flow regime over the area and
will provide an avenue for a steady stream of mid-level disturbances
to move through. So, frequent rain chances and possible MCS activity
will return to the forecast.

Temperatures don`t look too out of hand through the period with
perhaps the warmest day being Friday. Portions of northern AR may
experience below normal temperatures into early next week with near
normal readings elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  84  64  91 /  60  50   0   0
Camden AR         69  86  66  92 /  40  50  10   0
Harrison AR       66  82  61  86 /  80  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    68  86  65  93 /  60  50   0   0
Little Rock   AR  71  86  68  93 /  60  50  10   0
Monticello AR     72  86  69  92 /  30  70  20  10
Mount Ida AR      67  86  62  93 /  70  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  68  84  61  87 /  80  30   0   0
Newport AR        71  85  65  91 /  60  60   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  85  68  92 /  40  70  10   0
Russellville AR   68  87  63  92 /  70  50   0   0
Searcy AR         70  85  65  91 /  50  50   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  85  68  91 /  40  60  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for ARZ052-053-066-130-137-
140-141-230-237-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67