085
FXUS64 KLZK 260919
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
419 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Skies were mostly clear across AR this morning with temperatures
holding in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Today, ample sunshine is
expected and temperatures should climb into the mid 70s to lower
80s on N/NErly winds. Winds could gust to 15-20 mph this
afternoon at times.

Synoptically, a potent upper closed-low/trough was positioned over
the the Mid-MS Valley Region with upper ridges over the Srn Plains
stretching Nwrd into the Cntrl Plains and off the E coast,
respectively. Moving ahead through tonight, the aforementioned
closed-low will move Swrd, becoming momentarily stationary near
TN/MS/AL borders. At the same time, Helene will move Nwrd coming
ashore near sunset or shortly thereafter across the Big Bend of FL,
and rotate about an axis centered between Helene and the upper
closed-low.

On Friday, the remnants of Helene will merge with the closed-low
providing additional moisture to the closed-low/trough. The
closed-low will then begin to drift Nwrd towards the OH Valley.
AR should stay in upper NW flow the entire time, which will serve
to bring drier air into the W side of the system and slightly
lower expected QPF amounts across the CWA.

Across AR, clouds will build into the region Thursday night from the
NE. Showers will increase in coverage early Friday across NE AR,
before spreading SW through the late morning into the overnight
period. The heaviest rain is anticipated to remain over NErn
sections of the state, where a couple to few inches of QPF is
possible. Lower amounts are expected over S/SW/and W AR where
totals should be limited to a couple tenths of an inch at best.
There will likely be a pronounced cutoff on the S and W side of
the precipitation shield delineating a couple tenths of an inch
from amounts near or greater than one inch. Breezy N/NWrly winds
around 15-20 mph are expected with gusts frequently between 20-30
mph. Higher wind gusts are possible over the Delta Region of NE
AR. Rainfall will start to wind down early Saturday morning as the
entire system begins to pulls away.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The extended period will begin with a merged storm system aloft and
remnants of Hurricane Helene over the Tennessee Valley. This feature
will have nowhere to go given ridges of high pressure in the
southern Rockies and just off the mid Atlantic Coast.

Isolated to scattered showers remain in the forecast over northern
and eastern Arkansas on Saturday along with a breezy northwest wind.
Gusts could exceed 20 mph in parts of the north/east. A few showers
may still be around in the northeast on Sunday, but with less wind.
Otherwise, dry conditions are in the forecast this weekend farther
south/west.

Heading into next week, the ridge in the Rockies will try to build
in our direction. A gradual warming trend will occur Monday/Tuesday,
and there is no rain expected. Toward the middle of the week, a
broad northwest flow aloft will take over ahead of the ridge, and
this will drive a cold front through Arkansas from the Plains.
For now, it looks like a dry frontal passage, followed by slightly
cooler air.

As far as temperatures, seasonal temperatures at the beginning of
the long term will quickly become above seasonal late in the
weekend/early next week. Readings will return to normal levels
as the period comes to a close.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with winds becoming
N/NE on Thursday around 10 kts, gusting to near 20 kts during the
afternoon over Cntrl/Ern terminals. Scattered day Cu is expected
however no operational impacts are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  61  69  61 /  10  60  80  60
Camden AR         82  60  77  61 /   0  10  50  30
Harrison AR       77  57  69  60 /   0  30  60  40
Hot Springs AR    82  61  77  64 /   0  10  60  30
Little Rock   AR  82  64  72  64 /   0  40  70  50
Monticello AR     82  62  75  63 /   0  10  70  40
Mount Ida AR      82  57  77  61 /   0  10  50  20
Mountain Home AR  78  59  70  61 /   0  50  70  50
Newport AR        79  62  68  61 /  10  70  90  70
Pine Bluff AR     81  62  73  62 /   0  30  70  50
Russellville AR   82  60  75  63 /   0  20  60  40
Searcy AR         80  61  71  61 /   0  60  80  60
Stuttgart AR      80  62  70  63 /   0  40  80  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...70